Ameren Corp Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim - Analyst : Maybe just, Marty, if you can dig into the growth profile a little more. So you're now just over 9% rate base CAGR. You've got this new sales number with 1 gig by 29, equity is largely the same. Can you speak to how close you are to the top end of 6 to 8 at this point? Are we another 29 hyperscaler deal away from piercing 8%?

Question: Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim - Analyst : No, that's very well stated. And then on just the resource plan update, can you just help us sensitize a little more on the scenarios? The preferred plan is 1.5 gigs by 2032, so that's our baseline. But how much of capacity headroom is there in the resource mix if you wind up going beyond that? Are we looking at more generation capital or to be backfilled with retirement extensions, repowerings, et cetera?

Question: Durgesh Chopra - Evercore ISI - Analyst : Well, a quick shout out to our IR team. The IRP reconciliation as crisp as always and makes my job a lot easier. Listen, two questions. First, on the balance sheet, just like -- how -- the capital line is about 20% higher. The equity is the same. Maybe just where are you tracking on FFO to debt? And are you positioned strongly enough with this capital plan to be at Baa1 or are we thinking about Baa2? Just thoughts there.

Question: Durgesh Chopra - Evercore ISI - Analyst : Got it. Okay. Excellent. And then maybe just a lot of upside investment opportunities on the MISO side, on the IRP. Maybe can you just help reconcile what is in the five-year plan? And then what are the quantum of opportunities if there's a way to size the capital amount, which is truly upside and not yet in the capital plan, if you know where I'm going with this?

Question: Nicholas Campanella - Barclays Bank PLC - Analyst : So I just -- when I look across the portfolio, there's just a lot of tailwinds, whether it's Missouri rate review seems like it's going off to a solid start. And I know that there's legislation this year, you're kind of laying the framework for potentially more data centers to come into your territories. And if you were to have success here, let's just say you kind of move into the high scenario, low growth range or you do have to kind of accelerate capital in the plan, is there a point in which you would kind of like reevaluate the growth rate? Or do these opportunities kind of extend that premium 6 to 8 offering at the (technical difficulty)

Question: Nicholas Campanella - Barclays Bank PLC - Analyst : That's super helpful. I appreciate that. And I'm sorry to maybe repeat yourself a little bit on what's in the plan versus not, but just -- you mentioned that you have capacity to serve 2 gigawatts of demand -- or you're working towards capacity to serve 2 gigawatts of demand by 2032. It does seem you have like 1.8 under construction. So I just is what you're doing freeing up additional capacity to attract an additional 2 gigs. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. FEBRUARY 14, 2025 / 3:00PM, AEE.N - Q4 2024 Ameren Corp Earnings Call So if you were to have an additional demand, you have to do more CapEx for that? Or does this kind of -- is this plan and this CapEx plan to create that capacity for you? I just wanted to understand that.

Question: Carly Davenport - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. - Analyst : Maybe just two quick ones for me. First, on the sales growth outlook. Can you just help us put that 5.5% CAGR into the context of sort of the total pipeline that you're seeing in Missouri? Or maybe said another way, can you just talk about how you sort of risked the pipeline to come out to this 5.5% level over the course of the new five-year plan?

Question: Carly Davenport - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. - Analyst : Great. I appreciate all that color. That's really helpful. And then maybe just on the updated IRP in Missouri. I know you mentioned this in your opening remarks, but you did have some new nuclear longer dated, of course, by 2040 reflected in that new filing. Obviously, it's a big focus of the market. So could you just talk a little bit about kind of how you envision that new capacity, is that more focused on opportunities around SMRs or something more like a [PRP 1000]

Question: Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Jefferies - Analyst : With that said, you guys -- I mean, just a remarkable update here across the board, whether it's the minimal -- limited incremental equity, great roll forward of the rate base here. I mean, really what's left to address on the call here is, as you think about regulatory lag in front of you in this investment cycle, can you speak to that a little bit here and what you're facing, if that -- there's any kind of timing issues? Obviously, you're emphasizing being at the upper end of the plan in the back half of the year. Can you speak to maybe any kind of earned ROE expectations and maybe marry that up against expectations and how to frame and sensitize any potential legislative outcomes here? Obviously, you spoke to some of them in brief earlier, but maybe just kind of square that up, if you will, and set any expectations on the cadence of earnings through the five-year period, too?

Question: Anthony Crowdell - Mizuho - Analyst : Hopefully, just 2 quick questions. One is, I think, on slide 31, where you -- kudos to Andrew again. You do a great job of breaking it out. Just wondering, 2030 at 1,600 megawatts of gas, 800 more than your original plan. We hear or seen the papers challenges of procuring new gas-fired generation. Just anything you could add on the ability to add that generation? I have one follow-up.

Question: Anthony Crowdell - Mizuho - Analyst : Great. And then on the S&P rating, just if you could just give me the numbers, I missed it to the earlier question. I think you said you're closer to the upgrade threshold. Would you mind just those numbers again?

Question: Anthony Crowdell - Mizuho - Analyst : Congrats on a great update.

Question: William Appicelli - UBS - Analyst : Question on the -- there is a large load tariffs that you're going to be filing. Can you just share some details around that? Is that going to have minimum low commitments for a set period of time? Is there an expectation that this is new load that's going to be -- have a neutral impact or potentially a beneficial impact to existing customers? Any color you can share on that filing?

Question: William Appicelli - UBS - Analyst : Okay. But I mean -- but the point would be that existing customers would be held -- would be neutral to the large load coming on?

Question: William Appicelli - UBS - Analyst : Yes. Okay. And then just on the Missouri rate case, I think there's a settlement window coming up next week. I know you've got hearings set for middle of March. But any update on how you're feeling around maybe the possibility of settling the rate case in this upcoming window?

Question: Jeremy Tonet - JPMorgan - Analyst : I was just wondering if I go to the financing plan a little bit, the $4.4 billion of increase in CapEx, yet only $300 million of incremental equity, I haven't seen that from all your peers out there. Just wondering if you could talk a bit more about the specific drivers here that allow you to minimize additional equity issuance here? Is there any shaping of CapEx over the 5-year plan and how that impacts financing considerations?

Question: Jeremy Tonet - JPMorgan - Analyst : Got it. Great to see what a being conservative on the balance sheet can do to you, make sense. And maybe just one last one, if I could. Circling back to legislation, do these items represent upside to your plan? Any way to size the magnitude of earnings and cash flow benefits from possible legislation here?

Question: David Paz - Wolfe Research, LLC. - Analyst : Sorry, I think my question has mostly been answered, but maybe just a little more precise question here. I know you said that you expect to be within the 6% to 8% EPS growth target each year and then the upper end in the latter half of the planning period. But do you see any specific headwinds that puts you below the midpoint, say, next year in 2026 before that sales growth kicks in? And if so, what are those?