Algoma Steel Group Inc Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: David Ocampo - Cormark Securities Inc - Analyst : Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Just the first one here, Rajat, maybe you can clarify a little bit, I didn't quite catch it on the blast furnace outage that happened in the quarter. How many weeks was it out for and what's the expected cost of bringing that back online?

Question: David Ocampo - Cormark Securities Inc - Analyst : Okay. And then maybe just turning the page to the tariff , which I imagine. We'll be front and center for you guys, but, when we look at crew prices and think about your cost profile as a blasphemous operator, are you guys still able to generate positive EBITDA or at least break-even EBITDA with a 25% tariff on your shipments to the US? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. MARCH 13, 2025 / 3:00PM, ASTL.OQ - Q4 2024 Algoma Steel Group Inc Earnings Call

Question: David Ocampo - Cormark Securities Inc - Analyst : Goit it. And then that's, for at least for the index that we're seeing for crude prices, and maybe that pertains more to the US. But I'm curious what you guys are seeing for Canadian sheet prices, especially given that there could be a potential oversupply with cliffs moving some still goes shipping down to the US to avoid those tariffs.

Question: David Ocampo - Cormark Securities Inc - Analyst : I guess if you had a crystal ball, like how much of a discount do you think Canadian cheap prices will be versus the crew index, once those tariffs do come into place? I know it's a bit of a tougher question to answer, but, perhaps you can provide some color there.

Question: David Ocampo - Cormark Securities Inc - Analyst : Okay, I'll hop back in the queue. I'll let people ask some questions first.

Question: Katja Jancic - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst : Hi, thank you for taking my question. Maybe staying on the tariffs if these tariffs stick and you just mentioned that $950 crop price you're essentially breaking even. Are you thinking of taking any mitigating effects like for example, are you looking at potentially lowering costs? Is there anything you can actually do at this point to mitigate what's going on?

Question: Katja Jancic - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst : Just to clarify, you said $650 is the all-in cost for HRC right now for.

Question: Katja Jancic - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst : And then maybe just on the insurance comment, can you remind us how much you're expecting it to get in and maybe more specifically what the timing of that is?

Question: Katja Jancic - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst : And how much of the $100 million is in the next month? For your term.

Question: Katja Jancic - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst : And then I think Rajat, you mentioned before on the working capsule release. Can you just remind us how much and the timing?

Question: Katja Jancic - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst : And the tariffs do not change the $100 million that you're expecting to release in this quarter.

Question: Katja Jancic - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst : Okay, I'll back into the queue. Thank you.

Question: Ian Gillies - Stifel GMP - Analyst : Morning everyone. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. MARCH 13, 2025 / 3:00PM, ASTL.OQ - Q4 2024 Algoma Steel Group Inc Earnings Call

Question: Ian Gillies - Stifel GMP - Analyst : Just a clarifying comment, you mentioned break even at 950 CRU. Is that on the consolidated on a consolidated sales basis or is that only on the US related sales?

Question: Ian Gillies - Stifel GMP - Analyst : Yes, that's helpful. Thank you. As it pertains to toggling between HRC and plate, can you maybe talk a little bit about where you think you could get plate production to this year in the event that tariffs happen for the entirety of the year? And how you can go about toggling like really toggling that piece just because there's been a bit of push and pull the last year on what you thought you might actually produce in in calendar year '25.

Question: Ian Gillies - Stifel GMP - Analyst : Understood. That's helpful. There's been a lot of commentary in and around the Canadian government, supporting the steel industry. I'm just curious as to whether it becomes something more than just retaliatory tariffs and whether you think something more along the lines of the government loans or government grants may become available not just to Algoma to the broader steel industry and whether that would be something you're amenable to.

Question: Ian Gillies - Stifel GMP - Analyst : Understood. Last one for me in the event tariffs get worse from here and they move higher, and you think about the operating platform for the business or the operating parameters. Do you continually continue running the furnace at close to or near to 100% utilization just to keep it full and so on and so forth and stockpile inventory or do you TRY and reduce throughput and manage your sales volumes that way?

Question: Ian Gillies - Stifel GMP - Analyst : Understood. I know that helps. And last room for me and likely at the margin, but just curious whether you anticipate receiving any carbon tax rebates in 2025.

Question: Ian Gillies - Stifel GMP - Analyst : Understood. Thank you very much I'll turn the call back over.

Question: David Ocampo - Cormark Securities Inc - Analyst : Thanks. I just wanted to circle back on my previous question about the Canadian discount prices, that's happening in the market, but more specifically that you guys have a pretty large, contracted order book. And I think that's all based on crew prices. So are your customers or Canadian customers giving any pushback if, spot prices in Canada are at a 20% to 25% discount relative to crew?

Question: David Ocampo - Cormark Securities Inc - Analyst : Okay, and then just the last one just on the EAF ramp first production expected in April, but I was hoping you guys could provide a little bit more

Question: David Ocampo - Cormark Securities Inc - Analyst : Okay. And then Rajat, you think the 650 break even that's on a combined basis between the EAF and blast furnace, or is that one or the other? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. MARCH 13, 2025 / 3:00PM, ASTL.OQ - Q4 2024 Algoma Steel Group Inc Earnings Call

Question: David Ocampo - Cormark Securities Inc - Analyst : Okay, that's perfect. That's all for me. Thank you.

Question: Katja Jancic - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst : Hi, thank you for taking my question again. On the volume for this year. So if we have 200,000 tons from the EIF, how to think about in the first two, you already said mi 400. How to think about the volume in the rest of the year from the blast furnace overall. And then also how to think about the split between plate and HRC given that maybe there's a little more opportunity on the plate side.

Question: Katja Jancic - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst : Okay. Thank you.