Expand Energy Corp Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: Betty Jiang - Barclays Services Corp - Analyst : I really appreciate all the color that you're laying out, Slide 9 and 10 on just growing the gas marketing opportunity. If I can just ask about what it specifically means for your gas realization over time. The methanol deal is obviously helping in the 2030s and beyond. But the opportunities that you see, do you see your gas realization and this just narrowing over time as you start capturing all these opportunities?

Question: Betty Jiang - Barclays Services Corp - Analyst : That's great. Very exciting developments there. And then my follow-up is just on the M&A side, the resource expansion that you highlighted, both the Appalachia and the Western Haynesville. Maybe bigger picture, what are you looking to achieve with these type of bolt-on/small deals? Do you see more resource opportunities and similar type of deal to acquire locations at a low cost? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. OCTOBER 29, 2025 / 1:00PM, EXE.OQ - Q3 2025 Expand Energy Corp Earnings Call

Question: Kevin MacCurdy - Pickering Energy Partners - Analyst : Kind of sticking with the Western Haynesville. I mean, it sounds like you've already drilled a vertical well there, and you did some leasing maybe before this last acquisition. Can you kind of expand on what you saw in that vertical well and what was attractive about this particular area of the Western Haynesville?

Question: Kevin MacCurdy - Pickering Energy Partners - Analyst : Great. I appreciate the detail on that. And as a follow-up, kind of moving back to the core Haynesville, and it looks like a lot of the CapEx savings and even outperformance on the production side has come from the Haynesville. What are the most notable differences between your expectations coming into the year on the drilling and completing of the wells? And you kind of mentioned in your earlier remarks that you think you're doing wells significantly cheaper than peers, without giving away your secrets, do you know what you're doing different that is causing that well cost saving?

Question: Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs Group Inc - Analyst : Yes. And Nick, it's great to see the capital efficiency improvement. And that kind of sets up my question for -- as you think about '26, is it fair to say that the CapEx, all else equal, should be relatively flat '26 versus '25? And what are some moving pieces as you think about the soft guide for next year?

Question: Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs Group Inc - Analyst : Yes. Nick, and then the follow-up is just the update on hedge the wedge. The curve looks really good here for 2026 and even into '27. And so how are you thinking about continuing to execute that program? And it backwardates pretty decently as you get it from '28 to 2030, and I know there's less liquidity. So I'm guessing 8 quarters rolling forward is still the right framework, but just your latest thoughts there.

Question: Zach Parham - JPMorgan Chase & Co - Analyst : First, just wanted to follow up on Kevin's question. You took your D&C costs down in the Haynesville and expect those to move even lower in 2026. Can you just talk about the factors pushing those costs lower? Is that mostly efficiency gains that you factored in, in 2026? Or is there some level of OFS deflation built into those numbers?

Question: Charles Meade - Johnson Rice & Company LLC - Analyst : I want to ask a question on breakevens and go back to some of the -- I think, your prepared comments. I believe I heard you say in your prepared comments that your -- I think it was your company-wide breakeven is now $2.75. And I'm wondering if you could tell me if I heard that correctly. And also maybe remind us what the other important assumptions in that number are? And I'm thinking just two, off the top of my head, whether that includes location costs and if there's some minimum threshold return that's baked in that number also.

Question: Charles Meade - Johnson Rice & Company LLC - Analyst : Got it. That's great context. And then maybe this is a follow-up for you perhaps. The Western Haynesville horizontal that you're going to drill in 4Q, can you give us some framework for what success would look like there? What would get you more enthusiastic about the play? And perhaps as a follow-on to that bracket, what we should be thinking about for your activity there in '26?

Question: David Deckelbaum - TD Cowen - Analyst : I wanted to just follow up a bit on some of the color and planning around '26. I'm just curious if you could talk to the appraisal program for the Western Haynesville in '26. And really, I guess, how impactful you could see this asset becoming to your overall program in what time frame?

Question: David Deckelbaum - TD Cowen - Analyst : I appreciate that. And then maybe we could revisit just the LCM deal. I know without going into pricing terms, I'm curious just what merits of this deal sort of propelled you or motivated you to sign this one, why this agreement sort of makes sense versus perhaps some others like LNG or power-related contracts. I surmise you're trying to achieve a premium relative to what your forecast might be on 2030, but what was the general thought process or guidelines that you're using right now to sort of engage in some of these offtake agreements?

Question: John Annis - Texas Capital - Analyst : For my first one, with over 2 Bcf of power and industrial demand growth expected along the Gulf Coast that you highlight on Slide 11. How should we think about the pace of leaning further into supply agreements like the one with LCM and the inbound interest you've noted. Just given you're one of the few with meaningful inventory depth in the Haynesville and with egress from Texas to Louisiana potentially constrained are you contemplating potentially being more patient with entering into future deals to let the gas on gas demand further materialize and accrue to your benefit?

Question: John Annis - Texas Capital - Analyst : Terrific. I appreciate that color. For my follow-up, with your position in the Nacogdoches fault zone, I wanted to get a sense of how similar your position in the Western Haynesville is to the NFZ just in terms of depth and temperature. And do you believe your experience operating in the highest geopressured area of the legacy Haynesville positions you to potentially come down the learning curve more quickly.

Question: Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets Inc - Analyst : Just touching base again on the Western Haynesville. Just a couple of questions, just a clarification. Number one, first on -- you spoke about like geological complexities and stuff out there. Do you -- what other kind of facets are important for us to focus on? And then trying to figure out, like is there a greater position for you to build out there? Or do you think you've got a pocket that you like right now?

Question: Scott Hanold - RBC Capital Markets Inc - Analyst : And my follow-up question is on the Haynesville productivity improvements and the view of seeing it improve yet into 2026. It sounds like some of that is your Gen 1 through potentially Gen 3 design. Could you give us a little bit of color on exactly what you're tweaking within that? And also, is there any facet of the expectation of productivity improvements related to where you're targeting within the Haynesville? Or is it more based on these new generations of completions?

Question: John Freeman - Raymond James - Analyst : When I was looking at the full year CapEx reduction by another $75 million, the two biggest drivers of that are the $25 million less allocated to the productive capacity build, which you've been pretty clear kind of highlighting the efficiency gains in the Haynesville that drove that. But the other amount was Northeast App that dropped about $25 million, and I know there's some curtailments. And I'm just trying to get an understanding if REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. OCTOBER 29, 2025 / 1:00PM, EXE.OQ - Q3 2025 Expand Energy Corp Earnings Call that's sort of timing curtailment related? Are there efficiency gains? I didn't see anything in the deck on kind of what drove the meaningful Northeast App drop in the budget.

Question: John Freeman - Raymond James - Analyst : Okay. And then on the follow-up question, you've obviously made significant progress on debt reduction this year. When I'm looking at next year relative to your capital returns framework that you all have on Slide 14, how should we think about kind of further debt reduction relative to other returns such as buybacks? I guess said differently, in other words, like would you anticipate a similar amount gets allocated to debt reduction next year in that sort of capital returns framework?