The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.
(Questions from industry analysts are provided in full, but answers are omitted - download the transcript to see the full question-and-answer session)
Question: Erika Najarian - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - Analyst
: Just a new clarification questions for my first one. Terry, you mentioned that deposit beta could be in the low to mid-30s for the next 125. Can we
interpret that in terms of the cumulative beta by fourth quarter? Does that mean that will be the cumulative beta by the fourth quarter? Or does
that mean that the cumulative beta would be lower than that range by fourth quarter because we have to take into account the first 100?
Question: Erika Najarian - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - Analyst
: Got it. I'm just comparing it to a peer that reported also today. I think they mentioned that the cumulative beta would be in the low 30s by year-end.
And it sounds like, based on the math, you could outperform that.
Question: Erika Najarian - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - Analyst
: Got it. Okay. And Andy, maybe taking a step back and asking more of an industry question. Clearly, the market is very worried about a recession.
And clearly, the market accepts that U.S. Bank has one of the best quality balance sheets out there. The bank has spent a lot of time building their
corporate market share.
I guess my first question to you is, as you think about the relative resilience of banks potentially in a recession, like Gerard alluded to, and the
amount of sort of lost market share to nonbanks, do you see some of that coming back to -- that market share coming back to the industry generally
and U.S. Bank specifically? Or was some of that credit quality never something that you wanted to underwrite and put on the books to begin with?
Question: Erika Najarian - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - Analyst
: And my third question is, I think that most of the Street subscribes to the idea that payments is going to be a secular winner for U.S. Bank. And
there's clearly a debate right now on how weak does the consumer get in a downturn. Nobody is worried really about credit surprises in the
consumer with U.S. Bank. But how should we think about the range of outcomes in payment activity and spend if we do have a recession?
Question: Erika Najarian - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - Analyst
: And just one last one. You implied that the fee income guide -- you said lower than 2021. Would you quantify how much?
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