Olin Corp Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: Patrick Cunningham - Citi - Analyst : Hi, good morning, Ken and Todd. Could you provide an update to sort of volume and price outlook for chlor, vinyls sequentially? It seems like you've got a clear signal on further price support in the first quarter. How would you characterize the pricing across the major derivatives, particularly EDC as it's been the weakest one?

Question: Aleksey Yefremov - KeyBanc Capital Markets - Analyst : Thanks. Good morning, everyone. You mentioned adding value for every ton of sold PVC. So can we assume that you require I guess, PVC range is cash positive? And how are you planning to ramp up your KEM ONE volumes for the remainder of this year?

Question: Hassan Ahmed - Alembic Global - Analyst : Morning, Ken and Todd. Question, it seems in Q1, you guys talked about it in your prepared remarks that you took advantage of some industry outages. So just trying to get a sense of historically, you guys have talked about your operating rates being in the 60s on the CAFD side of things, the industry running at maybe in the 80s. Just trying to get a sense of where your operating rates were in Q1, particularly as you took advantage of those industry outages?

Question: David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank - Analyst : Thank you. Good morning. Ken, on the same topic, do you expect to retain any of the spot business you realized one in Q1 going forward?

Question: Josh Spector - UBS - Analyst : Hi, good morning. I wanted to ask just on Winchester, kind of two things. First, can you kind of give us a bridge year-over-year between what's the EBITDA decline from lost volumes versus higher costs? And then with your guidance for the next quarter, there's some moving pieces, do you think EBITDA is higher or lower sequentially?

Question: Steve Byrne - Bank of America - Analyst : Ken, I'd like to follow up on two things you said. You referred to the capacity overhang in epoxy and you have this turnaround and Stade coming up. But is that a business that just warrants more shuttered capacity for you to drive a recovery? And the other comment you made was you refer to Winchester is an iconic brand. Could you take an approach to pushing price by calling it a surcharge or something to lead a higher pricing in Winchester and ammunition at the commercial level?

Question: Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets - Analyst : Great, thanks for taking my question. Hope you guys are well. Obviously, a very volatile challenging environment out there. We've seen some of downstream weakness. I'm just kind of curious, I know caustic has held up a little bit better. So as you look out into Q2 and maybe even the summer months with the water treatment season coming up, do you anticipate some caustic softness to emerge because operating rates will likely go seasonally speaking. And again, maybe there's some downstream demand that's also going to back up. So maybe you can just kind of reiterate your views on caustic and maybe even PVC as you look out -- I know you don't participate directly in PVC, but maybe in EDC. Thanks.

Question: Kevin McCarthy - Vertical Research Partners - Analyst : Yes, thank you and good morning. Can I like to come back to Winchester, and I appreciate your thoughts on what you would consider to be the structural or normalized profitability of that business. Part of the reason I ask is if we look back at history, pre-pandemic, maybe EBITDA trended on either side of $100 million. And then what happened was it quadrupled for a couple of years. And then we've regressed back down. So when you think about where we are in the first quarter, where do you think we are relative to normalized for Winchester given the various headwinds that you articulated and how might it change if at all, through the AMMO deal?

Question: Frank Mitsch - Fermium Research - Analyst : Thank you. Good morning. Ken, I want to follow up on epoxy. It seems like, unfortunately, the South Korean lobbyists are very effective at their job. So we're not going to get the sort of benefits on antidumping and you mentioned earlier that you have new agreements in place in Europe, but that should start kicking in, in the first quarter of '26. So are we looking at a lost year here in epoxy? I mean, what needs to happen in order to get epoxy back into the black in 2025?

Question: Peter Osterland - Truist Securities - Analyst : Hey, good morning. I wanted to ask one the increased cost cutting target for the year. Just in the context of the $250 million of cost savings you're targeting for 2028, do you view the increase you just announced for 2025 as a pull forward that's included in that target? Or are these incremental? And in which segment or segments are the extra savings this year concentrated?

Question: Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley - Analyst : Thank you. Can I ask you, you've lowered -- it says you've lowered your annual capital spending by $25 million. Is that just for 2025 or is that a change you've made that perpetual benefit? And I guess within that question, I just would also like to ask on the PVC strategy, what if any capital-light opportunities do you see there? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. MAY 02, 2025 / 1:00PM, OLN.N - Q1 2025 Olin Corp Earnings Call

Question: John Roberts - Mizuho - Analyst : Thank you. Is the difference on the purchase price for AMMO related to an earnout? Or what is it that lowered the price there?

Question: Matthew Blair - TPH - Analyst : Thank you and good morning, Ken and Todd. If we could circle back to caustic. So you mentioned some positive trends in pulp and alumina. Your guidance includes higher caustic prices for the first quarter. I think US spot cost it has been moving up as well. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. MAY 02, 2025 / 1:00PM, OLN.N - Q1 2025 Olin Corp Earnings Call I would say the one red flag is the recent drops in Southeast Asia caustic prices. I think they've fallen by about $35 a ton over the past three weeks or so. What's driving that delta between the US and Asia market and the falling values in Asia represent a concern?

Question: Mike Sison - Wells Fargo - Analyst : Hey guys, good morning. Nice quarter. You had mentioned that caustic is the stronger side of the ECU. How do you -- what's sort of the thought about taking advantage of that. Or are you still really focused on sort of managing to the weaker side being chlorine where, I think longer term, your earning they got?

Question: Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan - Analyst : Thanks very much. I think Dow wants to sell various assets in Europe. Would you be interested in looking at any of those at the appropriate value? Do their plans perhaps make it more difficult for you in your European operations? Or do they not really touch you? And then secondly, can you talk a little bit about the wind turbine market in epoxies? How important is that for you? And what are the current demand trends? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. MAY 02, 2025 / 1:00PM, OLN.N - Q1 2025 Olin Corp Earnings Call