Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (publ) Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: Christopher Winston Uhde - SEB, Research Division - Analyst : And thanks very much for clarifying on the products. Very helpful. I do have a few questions, but I'll start with 1 because it's got a few parts, I'm afraid. But so looking at consensus for Sobi, I'm always struck by the enormous spreads. In my view, well, that really means that we on the sell-side as a group are failing to understand the equity story. But -- and I guess it stands to reason that if we are, the market is too. And the upshot of that is that when everything has been going well for a while, of course, the market tends to factor in the upper end of the ranges. But on the other hand, once there've been a string of misses, the market starts to assume the bottom end. And I think the other thing here is that when consensus deviates too far above actuals across too many areas of the business, we get into an undesirable equity narrative of death by 1,000 cuts. So if you'll humor me by diving into the latest consensus with me, there are a few products where I see sort of wide major spreads and a risk of big estimate cuts for '22-'23. So the aim of my question is to ask for your help to narrow the chasm a little by providing some clarity at this point on some of the basic assumptions underlying forecasts. And so there are 4 major parts here. So the first is around pricing in haemophilia. So the pricing pressure, if I understand it so far, that the price cut was in Germany. But since Germany is usually the highest, we usually see then other countries following suit. So should we expect that going forward, that other countries will also cut? And then the second one is on Doptelet. Where I'm way above consensus for '22 because I assumed you'd offered a discount for the first 2 years to get on formularies, and that these discounts would then expire after a couple of years, bringing your net sales per patient more in line with competitors'. But now it seems Novartis are saying that it has no plans to extend its IP on eltrombopag. So meaning it would expire, I guess in 2023. So what do you expect to happen to Doptelet net sales per patient in the U.S. over the next couple of years as this event sort of materializes? And then in the third instance, I see consensus has Gamifant increasing steadily through 2023. But I fail to see an inflection point until the RH/LH launch in 2024. You've said you're fully penetrated in the U.S. in primary. You had left behind the European market for primary. And it seems that you may get an approval in China, but the odds of reimbursement -- national reimbursement coming in within a year or 2 are probably well below 50%. And given that Gamifant is the third most expensive drug in the world or so, it seems unlikely that it will be affordable without national reimbursement. So is there something I'm missing on Gamifant? And then the very final element is the margin for '21 where consensus had relatively high OpEx for Q1, but it seems to me that with all the trials and commercial buildup not starting simultaneously at the start of the year, that this should ramp up gradually over the year. So do those assumptions hold water? And I apologize for the length of the question.

Question: Christopher Winston Uhde - SEB, Research Division - Analyst : Back again. Sorry about that. Yes. So I guess, coming back to my question would be on Gamifant. So where is the, at what point can we start to expect that the addressable market becomes bigger than it is now, basically?