Societe Generale SA Q1 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: Delphine Lee - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Analyst : So I -- my 2 questions. The first one would be on capital. Just trying to understand a little bit your guidance of around 11% to 11.5% CET1 by year-end. If we pro forma where you are right now of the TRIM impact, you're around 12.2%. So it looks like there's another at least 70 basis points, if you could just -- negative impact. If you could just give a bit of color of how that breaks down between the different components? The second question is on cost of risk with your guidance of 70 to 100 basis points. If you don't mind giving us a little bit of color in terms -- in particular, on your GDP assumption for 2021. And if you could provide as well the different wave streams between scenarios, base case, favorable and worst-case scenarios? And also if you have any sensitivities, I mean, just for us to understand. Because in terms of cost of risk to GDP or unemployment, because when I look at your 100 basis points, it's only 30 basis points higher than your sort of base case despite GDP declining at double the base case. So just if you could give us some color to understand provisions, that would be great?

Question: Omar Fall - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division - Analyst : Just firstly, sorry if I missed this, but within the capital guidance for this year, how much in the way of earnings do you include exactly in the 200 to 250 buffer? Because I guess looking at it quite simply in the last 3 quarters of last year, you had something like EUR 5 billion of pre-provision profit, which will be going down a lot this year, presumably even with the cost savings. So I guess, if you then factor in your cost of risk target of EUR 3.5 billion to EUR 5 billion, it's unlikely you would have much this year. Then just a question for Jenny, I guess. What is the current stock of outstanding loans that's under payment moratorium or holiday across the group, please? So not the guaranteed loans, just the payment holidays. And can you confirm that you're not taking provisions or state migration on those outstandings as per the EDA guidelines? And similarly, what is the oil price implied in your cost of risk assumptions?

Question: Omar Fall - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division - Analyst : The oil price.

Question: Jonathan Matthew Balfour Clark - Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Analyst : A couple of follow-up questions for me, please. Firstly, could you just clarify, within your 200 to 250 basis points MDA buffer guidance, are you assuming the 70 basis points or the 100 basis points positive risk to get to that 200 to 250 range? Second question is regarding the fraud charges. Could you just confirm whether you fully provisioned for those exposures or whether there's a risk of further losses related to those 2 specific cases in coming quarters? And then final question for me is just about client appetite for auto calls. Presumably, your -- either your or the private banks you distribute them, clients have taken a bust on these products year-to-date. So does this create a problem for the earnings power of your equities business going forward if clients no longer want to buy these? Just some comment there on appetite for these structured products going forward, please?

Question: Jonathan Matthew Balfour Clark - Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Analyst : Understood.

Question: Jonathan Matthew Balfour Clark - Mediobanca - Banca di credito finanziario S.p.A., Research Division - Analyst : And sorry, could you just clarify what kind of haircut or level of law is embedded in these products? So if I -- I don't know, a Euro Stoxx 50 Autocall for me, where is the protection level set below which I end up owning the underlying?

Question: Anke Reingen - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : I just have 2 follow-up questions. Firstly, on your cost of risk guidance. I mean you said that incorporates the government guarantees. But is it correct to assume it also includes the EBA guidance on taking a more forward-looking view? And I know it's early days, but do you think there's a coordinated -- or would you say there's a coordinated approach if it's consistent across the different banks? Or is it very much everyone does his or her own thing at this stage? And then on the dividends, I see that -- I understand there's a lot of moving parts. But this is my understanding that when you pay a dividend, it can incorporate the benefit that could might be deferred and the capital benefit that will be coming out of the new EC proposal yet this week.