CF Industries Holdings Inc at RBC Capital Markets Chemicals and Packaging Conference (Virtual) Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: Andrew D. Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : Okay. So obviously, I think you know the first thing I'm going to ask you, the most topical event right now is what's happening with Russia and Ukraine. Can you just provide some more higher level, broader thoughts on some of the market impacts that we're seeing on the nitrogen and ag markets and where CF is seeing some of the biggest impacts today? And let's kind of take it from there.

Question: Andrew D. Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : So what is that marginal cost that you've seen to, like let's say, call it, $40, $50, $60, like what is that marginal cost versus the prices that we're seeing in the market today? And are you hearing from many of the European producers potentially considering shutting down because maybe they're not able to get the prices that they need or maybe even they may not even [build] the gas that they need?

Question: Andrew D. Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : And as we move through the year, how do you expect that marginal cost to be set? Will it still be Europe throughout most of this year? Or could we see as some of the experts come back from China? And does that maybe set the market as we kind of move into the seasonal lull? Or is it different this year? Because like we've seen in prior years, India had just cut on tendering and prices didn't quite come down as what people thought.

Question: Andrew D. Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : Right, right. And so I think just going back to the Chinese exports, does that change any of the views kind of going into Q3? Or is that just that there's just not enough tons coming out to kind of balance out the market there?

Question: Andrew D. Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : Right. And I think you made some good points, especially today with the focus on food security and just grain prices going up globally, that's going to be top of mind for the government as well in managing. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. MARCH 08, 2022 / 3:40PM, CF.N - CF Industries Holdings Inc at RBC Capital Markets Chemicals and Packaging Conference (Virtual)

Question: Andrew D. Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : And we've also been hearing with the Russian exports, they've had difficulty securing services, banking, insurance. They haven't been sanctioned yet, but it sounds like they've had difficulty with maybe deliveries. Are you seeing that as well? Are you seeing customers turning away from Russian product just because of challenges actually being able to pay or receive them and maybe just risk mitigation?

Question: Andrew D. Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : And I guess, just long term, what sort of assumptions (inaudible).

Question: Andrew D. Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : Sorry about that. So just in terms of your longer-term assumptions that, obviously, the situation is impacting the nat gas markets. Do you have different longer-term assumptions now in that gas? And how does that change your views in CF's on where nitrogen prices go longer term?

Question: Andrew D. Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : The curve -- it's a curve right in, but it may not tell us whether it might be 5 years from now, for example.

Question: Andrew D. Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : Right. Right. Just maybe turning to UAN a little bit here. We have seen the initial kind of duties coming in for CBDs and antidumping. The UAN is trading at a very high premium versus urea, maybe not as much today as it was a couple of weeks ago. How do you see that relationship kind of evolving over the next few years? Do we see a premium that's maybe similar to what the CBDs and antidumping are implying on like a nitrogen basis, essentially? Or how does that evolve over time?

Question: Andrew D. Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : Okay. Okay. So more to come. Low-carbon ammonia, the blue ammonia capacity that CF is adding, that's coming up in the next couple of years pretty -- it's actually pretty soon when you think about it. Is there anything you can share in terms of the discussions with your partners? Obviously, the blue ammonia is coming and you're seeing a lot of developments on the use case, but we haven't really seen any sort of like offtake or any sort of specific like a demand for it that's really come up like anything specific. So anything you can share around that, that'd would be interesting for us, I think. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. MARCH 08, 2022 / 3:40PM, CF.N - CF Industries Holdings Inc at RBC Capital Markets Chemicals and Packaging Conference (Virtual)

Question: Andrew D. Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : Okay. Okay. And just one question that we've got here is given some of the recent press speculation around acquisitions in the nitrogen space, could you please comment on whether now is a good time for some strategic M&A for CF?

Question: Andrew D. Wong - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division - Analyst : Right. Okay. That makes sense. I think that's all the time we have today. Thank you, Martin, for sharing all your thoughts on the nitrogen market and on CF. And anyone on the line, if you have any questions, feel free to send them through and we'll pass them on to the company. Thanks, Martin.