The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.
(Questions from industry analysts are provided in full, but answers are omitted - download the transcript to see the full question-and-answer session)
Question: Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: So why don't we start with a little bit of a bigger picture question. It's something we talked about to most asset managers that spoke
so far today is around just trends in asset allocation as we look out into 2025. Clearly, lots of macro tailwinds at play, equity market
is strong in the US, maybe a little less outside the US Credit spreads are pretty tight. How are clients repositioning their portfolios
looking into '25? And more importantly, how is AMG positioned to participate in that rotation?
Question: Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: Great. All right. Well, we'll spend time on all of these points, obviously, but I wanted to start with alternatives. AMG has made a very
meaningful progress in kind of pivoting the business towards more secular growth areas like private markets, in particular, but even
your liquid alts book started to do better over the last year or so. Collectively, as we said, 50% of EBITDA between those two kind of
subcategories.
Looking at private market specifically, I think it accounts for a little bit over 20% of EBITDA. Over the last two years, most of the
industry growth has been in private credit in parts of infra, but we're starting to see a little bit of broadening in fundraising. It's what
kind of the sentiment we hear from some of the other alt managers as broadly as capital velocity improves and things like that.
So can you talk a little bit about how growth trends within your private markets affiliates are shaping up over the next couple of
years? What are you most excited about in terms of kind of organic growth and fundraising there?
Question: Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: Can we expand on that a little bit because when people think about AMG's growth algorithm, I think it's easy to sign off on private
markets. We see that across the whole universe, right? The liquid alts part of the business has been more challenged in the past. We
see some outflows. And to your point, just now, you've definitely struck a more constructive tone on that part of the market.
So expand a little bit on terms of what do you think on that part of the business into 2025. I mean it sounds like AQR will be a
contributor. But how broad of the strength are you seeing in the liquid alts?
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DECEMBER 10, 2024 / 5:20PM, AMG.N - Affiliated Managers Group Inc at Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial
Services Conference
Question: Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: Got it. Since you mentioned active equities, I just wanted to zone in on a couple of more recent trends. Performance has been a little
bit volatile recently. I think some of your affiliates started to underperform a little bit more in the last couple of quarters. Any concerns
around that with respect to 2025 in terms of organic growth?
Or generally, you expect that to sort of stay within the same range that we've been in over the last 12 to 18 months?
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DECEMBER 10, 2024 / 5:20PM, AMG.N - Affiliated Managers Group Inc at Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial
Services Conference
Question: Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: I got you. Let's talk about the wealth channel. It's key topic for everybody in the alternative asset management space. Obviously, it's
a big topic for you guys as well. You're making pretty nice progress here. You expanded your lineup. I think there's about $5 billion
in AUM now across several products.
So can you discuss AMG's product inspection strategy and really your distribution strategy in this channel, when it comes to private
market alts in the wealth channel? And I guess, how meaningful of a growth driver do you expect this channel to be over time?
Question: Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: Can you talk about the investment component of that relationship? Because one theme that we continue to hear from both distributors
and asset managers that are trying to participate in this channel is that it's very costly. The support required to make these products
successful from financial adviser support, education, just customer service is much more significant than you find with many
institutional products.
Who's bearing the cost at AMG? How do you split that out? Like how does it ultimately contribute to (multiple speakers) --
Question: Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: Yeah. Okay. Great. Makes sense. Let's talk about acquisitions.
You sort of opened with that a bit to my first question and that echoes, of course, some of the things you said publicly on the last
earnings call, just talking about the pipeline being larger and there's a few things in a later stages. So just double-clicking on that,
the types of deals and the type of managers that perhaps are closer to the finish line, what does that look like?
And maybe as a follow up to that, we've seen quite a bit of consolidation particularly in private market space with a number of buyers,
both large and small, at pretty healthy multiple to say the least. Now those are consolidation deals, which are quite different from
what you guys offer. So when you talk to potential prospects, I'm assuming there's going to be some overlap between them considering
acquire one versus partner with AMG. What do you win? What do people ultimately get attracted to when it comes to you guys?
Question: Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: I got you. And then taking into account your active deal commentary, do you think that's kind of what's going to ultimately push
you kind of towards a 40%-ish buyback? Or do you think you can sustain the sort of 60% payout in terms of buyback as you look out
the next kind of 12 to 18 months?
Question: Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: I got you. And just another one on the M&A front. All this extra appetite for private markets from traditional players, all players, how
is that impacting purchase prices and multiples? Again, the public multiples that we've seen, frankly, for both publicly traded securities
and the deals of public traded companies that have been done are quite high, and that's probably outside of what you'd normally
find acceptable for AMG. And I think you've got deals in the high single digit, maybe 10 times EBITDA kind of range. What is that
doing in the market multiples?
Question: Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: I got you. I got it. All right. So kind of bringing all these pieces together, it's not a metric that you guys talk about publicly a ton, but
it's something that obviously we focus on is, which is kind of organic EBITDA growth in the company. And there's a few layers to
that. And Tom and I spend I feel like endless hours talking about this, but there's the mix, there's the ownership, there's a growth of
the (inaudible) all of that together, right?
So when I think about the pivot towards the liquids, which is obviously very helpful to your EBITDA growth trajectory, if you sustain
that momentum, what does that mean for kind of your organic EBITDA growth over the next couple of years? What are you ultimately
aspiring to?
Question: Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: Got it. All right. If you were to zoom out and think about the business over the next five years, you guys have been on a very consistent
path towards this private markets alts broadly trajectory, what do you think the business ultimately looks like over the next five
years?
Question: Alexander Blostein - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: Perfect. All right. All makes sense. Thank you both very much. We're out of time. So we'll leave it there. Thanks, all, for joining.
Appreciate it.
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