Sections
| Title | Starting Page | Number of Pages |
|---|
| Cover Page | 1 | 1 |
| Contents | 2 | 1 |
| Contents (CONT) | 3 | 1 |
| INTRODUCTION | 4 | 1 |
| INTRODUCTION | 5 | 1 |
| Key findings | 5 | 1 |
| Key findings (CONT) | 6 | 1 |
| Strait of Hormuz disruption sends shocks through the global economy | 7 | 1 |
| Graph - Exports of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) 2025 % of World total exports | 7 | 1 |
| GLOBAL OUTLOOK | 8 | 1 |
| Oil shock weakens global growth outlook | 8 | 1 |
| Graph - Real GDP Growth Euromonitor Baseline Forecast 2025-2027 | 8 | 1 |
| Rising oil prices renews global inflation pressures | 9 | 1 |
| Graph - Global Consumer Price Inflation Baseline Outlook 2025-2027 | 9 | 1 |
| Duration of the US/Israel-Iran war is the key swing factor for global growth | 10 | 1 |
| Graph - World: Real GDP Growth 2024-2028 | 10 | 1 |
| Duration of the US/Israel-Iran war is the key swing factor for global growth (CONT) | 11 | 1 |
| GCC growth hit as exports disruption spreads beyond energy | 12 | 1 |
| Graph - GCC: Real GDP Growth 2024-2028 | 12 | 1 |
| GCC REGION IMPACT | 13 | 1 |
| Table/Chart: Tabular Data Analysis | 13 | 1 |
| GCC REGION IMPACT | 14 | 1 |
| Saudi Arabia: Rerouting helps but cannot offset wider disruption | 14 | 1 |
| Table/Chart: Tabular Data Analysis | 14 | 1 |
| Saudi Arabia: Rerouting helps but cannot offset wider disruption (CONT) | 15 | 1 |
| Energy importers and export-led manufacturers face the biggest hit | 16 | 1 |
| Graph - Projected Impact of Prolonged Iran War by Country 2026-2027 Percentage points | 16 | 1 |
| MOST IMPACTED ECONOMIES | 17 | 1 |
| Japan: Growth momentum fades as energy shock spreads | 17 | 1 |
| Graph - Japan: Real GDP Growth 2024-2027 | 17 | 1 |
| Table/Chart: Tabular Data Analysis | 17 | 1 |
| MOST IMPACTED ECONOMIES | 18 | 1 |
| Graph - South Korea: Real GDP Growth 2024-2027 | 18 | 1 |
| Table/Chart: Tabular Data Analysis | 18 | 1 |
| MOST IMPACTED ECONOMIES | 19 | 1 |
| Germany: Fragile recovery faces a renewed energy shock | 19 | 1 |
| Graph - Germany: Real GDP Growth 2024-2027 | 19 | 1 |
| Table/Chart: Tabular Data Analysis | 19 | 1 |
| Germany: Fragile recovery faces a renewed energy shock (CONT) | 20 | 1 |
| Energy security and domestic demand underpins the most resilient economies | 21 | 1 |
| Graph - Projected Impact of Prolonged Iran War by Country 2026-2027 Percentage points | 21 | 1 |
| MOST RESILIENT ECONOMIES | 22 | 1 |
| US: Growth slows but remains resilient under a prolonged war scenario | 22 | 1 |
| Graph - US: Real GDP Growth 2024-2027 | 22 | 1 |
| Table/Chart: Tabular Data Analysis | 22 | 1 |
| US: Growth slows but remains resilient under a prolonged war scenario (CONT) | 23 | 1 |
| CONCLUSION | 24 | 1 |
| Questions we are asking | 24 | 1 |
| Permanent shifts in global trade | 24 | 1 |
| Renewed interest in renewable energy | 24 | 1 |
| Redefining economic resilience | 24 | 1 |
| How to build resilience amid geopolitical tensions | 25 | 1 |
| Graph - Appendix | 26 | 1 |
| Graph - Baseline and alternative scenarios: Q2 2026 | 27 | 1 |
| Table/Chart: Tabular Data Analysis | 27 | 1 |
| About the authors | 28 | 1 |
| About the author: | 28 | 1 |
| Expertise areas: | 28 | 1 |
| Recent publications: | 28 | 1 |
| Euromonitor's research spans 210 countries and 99.9% of the world's consumers | 29 | 1 |
| Analysts in 100 countries | 29 | 1 |
| Graph - Strategic knowledge, tactical data and thought-provoking insights, all in one place | 29 | 1 |
| Tailor these insights to your business | 30 | 1 |
