...The UK recovery continues to remain fragile as household demand remains subdued and financial problems continue to beset the Eurozone. As the crisis rumbles on, the recovery continues to stall. We now expect GVA growth of 0.7% in 2012 and 2.1% in 2013, though the risks continue to remain heavily skewed on the downside. Risks include fragility within the Eurozone, slowing world trade and commodity prices remaining high. Growth will be predominantly led by the export orientated professional service sector. Public sector is expected to continue to lose jobs throughout the recovery phase, given spending constraints. Manufacturing is also expected to continue to lose jobs, though the rate of contraction will be slower than that of the previous decade. The forecasts suggest a return to traditional patterns of growth with the southern economies leading growth over the decade ahead. This is largely the result of the sectoral outlook and the concentration of professional services and highly skilled...
