...Late June saw the publication of the quarterly national accounts for 2012Q1, which incorporated revisions to the historical data consistent with the annual Blue Book balancing process. In the past, this process has seen relatively large revisions to the historical data, but this time around the changes were relatively minor. The most noteworthy revision came to the 2008-09 period, where the recession is now estimated to have been shallower than before the peak-to-trough decline in GDP is estimated to have been 6.3% rather than 7.1%. The ONS further downgraded 2011Q4, with GDP now estimated to have fallen by 0.4% on the quarter and the 2012Q1 decline remained unrevised at 0.3%. However, we continue to expect Q1 to be revised upwards as the ONS incorporates more data, given the much stronger picture painted by the labour market and the business surveys during this period....
