Developments in the Conservative leadership contest have done little to alter our view that the next Prime Minister is likely to prioritise ending the free movement of labour from EU countries over other considerations, including unfettered access to the single market. Our previous work suggests that this approach would wreak the most damage economically. But more promisingly, the government finally appears to be realising the potential benefits of a looser fiscal stance. This could help to cushion the blow to activity from Brexit-related uncertainty.