Decembers activity surveys capped off a so-so year for the economy, suggesting that the last three months of 2015 saw another quarter of no more than average GDP growth. So the economy continues to make little headway in catching up with the pre-financial crisis trend. Meanwhile, the Chancellor used a speech in Cardiff to emphasise the risks facing the UK economy from global developments. But while he argued that these risks boosted the case for sticking to his deficit reduction plans, in our view, a gloomier global outlook implies quite the opposite.