Weekly Economic Briefings > Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing > Eurozone

Euro area GDP growth surprised to the upside in Q1, posting its fastest pace of expansion in the last 12 months and in something of a landmark, finally rose above its previous pre-financial crisis level. The fact that this has taken 8 years to achieve underscores the unprecedented nature of the Great Recession which continues to have more in common with the depression of the 1930s than with any of the previous stop-go cycles of the post-war era. As a result, monetary policy too, has been exceptional. But looking ahead, we forecast a steady if slightly unspectacular recovery to continue with GDP growth likely to revert to a more normal 0.4% q/q in Q2. Inflation, too, has almost certainly reached its nadir unless either oil prices or the global economy collapse. This surely represents the bottom of the ECBs current easing cycle.