Country Economic Forecasts > Uganda

After expanding by 4.8% in both 2013 and 2014, the Ugandan economy is expected to grow 5.8% this year. Momentum is expected to be maintained over the medium term, with GDP growth seen at 6-7% a year, driven by implementation of the second five-year National Development Plan that started this year. The government will want the plan to deliver some tangible results before the elections expected in February next year, so the public sector investment drive is likely to be accelerated. The nascent hydrocarbon sector is expected to become the primary draw for FDI in the coming years. But the fall in the Uganda shilling, down 25% against the US$ so far this year, and the impact on inflation is causing concern. And the approach of presidential and parliamentary elections, expected in February 2016, is also a cause for concern as President Museveni (in power since 1986) has started to clamp down on what may prove to be a very strong challenge from the opposition.