Country Economic Forecasts > Netherlands

The latest official data show that the Dutch economy enjoyed a slightly more positive performance in the first half of 2015 than previously believed. Quarterly GDP growth in Q2 was revised up from 0.1% to 0.2%, largely due to slightly stronger investment. But the more recent data has been generally soft: manufacturing output contracted by 0.1% in August, the manufacturing PMI slipped to 53 in September and overall industrial production fell a huge 10% y/y in August thanks partly to restrictions on gas output. In addition, despite the boost to real income growth from low inflation, the consumer sector has also showed some weakness, with household spending and retail sales both falling. However, although the recovery is hardly roaring ahead, there are still some encouraging factors, notably still positive consumer and business sentiment indicators as well as the impact of improving Eurozone demand on the export sector. Overall, we are sticking to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.9% this year, followed by 2.1% growth in 2016 both above the Eurozone average.