Country Economic Forecasts > China - Oxford Economics Services

Country Economic Forecasts > China

Country Economic Forecasts > China - Oxford Economics Services
Country Economic Forecasts > China
Published Oct 01, 2015
11 pages — Published Oct 01, 2015
Price US$ 185.00  |  Buy this Report Now

About This Report

  
Abstract:

Pressures on China's economy persist with the downturn in real estate dampening output in heavy industry and mining. In addition, several industries are scaling back output since they accumulated significant excess capacity in recent years. While housing sales momentum has picked up in recent months, housing starts continue to remain very weak amid large inventories. This suggests that activity in the sector will not recover quickly. Moreover, the Caixin manufacturing PMI slipped again in September to 47.2. And exporters are suffering from a strong currency (because of the dollar's sustained appreciation) and lacklustre global demand. However, private consumption and the services sector continue to provide a helpful cushion against the weakness in industry with spending on tourism, hotel and catering, smartphones and online retail remaining healthy. This is also reflected in the Caixin services PMI which suggests continued expansion. Further easing of monetary policy and increased fiscal expenditure will provide additional support to growth. However, with turnover on the stock market down because of the plunge in prices since June, the financial sector should add much less to GDP growth in H2. Overall, we forecast the economy to grow by 6.6% on average this year and to slow to just below 6% in 2016.

  
Source:
Document ID
316434
Country
Format:
PDF Adobe Acrobat
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Sections

Title
China:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output - latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

Table Of Contents

Oxford Economics Services—Oxford Economics is a leading economic forecasting consultancy, producing macroeconomic and industry forecasts, analysis and data on 175 countries.

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Cite this Report

  
MLA:
Oxford Economics Services. "Country Economic Forecasts > China" Oct 01, 2015. Alacra Store. Nov 04, 2026. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Oxford-Economics-Services/Country-Economic-Forecasts-gt-China-2111-5438>
  
APA:
Oxford Economics Services. (2015). Country Economic Forecasts > China Oct 01, 2015. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Nov 04, 2026 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Oxford-Economics-Services/Country-Economic-Forecasts-gt-China-2111-5438>
  
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