Country Economic Forecasts > Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's GDP grew by 8% in 2015, the ninth successive year of expansion of 8% or more. But as ever, there is considerable doubt about the reliability of the data. Despite higher public investment and rising commercial lending to sustain domestic demand, one would have expected growth to slow due to the impact of recession in Russia and slowing activity in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and China all key trading partners and the main source of remittances. Indeed, remittances from Russia fell 50% to US$2.3bn in 2015 as Russian GDP contracted 3.7%, the rouble plummeted and Uzbek workers returned to their home country. In addition key commodity prices fell.We forecast growth will slow to 7.2% in 2016 due to the weak external outlook, including continued recession in Russia, further slowdown in China and falling GDP in Kazakhstan. Oil and metal prices are also set for further decline. But as in 2015, growth will be supported by public investment and domestic lending, while real wage growth and large pension increases will support private consumption.