Country Economic Forecasts > Uzbekistan

According to official data, Uzbekistan's GDP grew by 8% in the first nine months of 2015, broadly unchanged from the outturns seen in the last four years. But there is considerable doubt whether this can be the case given the impact of weakness in key trading partners Russia and Ukraine (both in deep recession) and Kazakhstan and the plunge in world commodity prices. However, the full impact of weak eternal factors has been mitigated by continued fiscal policy stimulus.Growth will continue to be supported by the government's modernisation programme for industry and infrastructure as well as its privatisation plans, which aim to attract FDI. State assets in four companies were put on sale in early November. Nevertheless, we still forecast a modest slowdown in GDP growth in 2016 to 7.5% as unfavourable external factors continue to bite.Inflation has accelerated and is likely to average 10% in 2015, partly due to double-digit currency depreciation against a strong US$ and higher state spending and only partially offset by lower import costs. We expect inflation to remain at about 10% in 2016. And the trade and current account surpluses are falling steeply due to low commodity export revenues.