Country Economic Forecasts > Ukraine - Oxford Economics Services

Country Economic Forecasts > Ukraine

Country Economic Forecasts > Ukraine - Oxford Economics Services
Country Economic Forecasts > Ukraine
Published Nov 30, 2015
5 pages — Published Nov 30, 2015
Price US$ 185.00  |  Buy this Report Now

About This Report

  
Abstract:

We still forecast an 11% drop in Ukraine's GDP in 2015 (worse than official projections) despite rising hopes of a return to growth in Q4. While recovery is in prospect for 2016-18, helped by substantial IMF and related assistance, ongoing structural constraints and political risks will limit medium-term growth to 3%, keeping GDP below the pre-crisis 2013 level until 2022. Recovery, and redirection, of exports will lead the recovery in 2016-17 despite subdued investment and public spending cuts. Any upside risks from new EU export access and resilient agriculture are offset by downside risks of ongoing internal conflict, political instability and delays to post-war reconstruction.A deal to reduce the scale and cost of public external debt is moving ahead despite Russian opposition, enabling gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit, seen at around 4.5% of GDP in 2015. The prospect of lower debt costs and a return to current account surplus have enabled the currency to stabilise below UAH24 to the US$, and this will support a sustained decline in inflation, already down to 46% in October and set to average just under 20% in 2016 despite more energy price rises.

  
Source:
Document ID
321386
Country
Format:
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Sections

Title
Ukraine:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output - latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

Table Of Contents

Oxford Economics Services—Oxford Economics is a leading economic forecasting consultancy, producing macroeconomic and industry forecasts, analysis and data on 175 countries.

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Cite this Report

  
MLA:
Oxford Economics Services. "Country Economic Forecasts > Ukraine" Nov 30, 2015. Alacra Store. Nov 04, 2026. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Oxford-Economics-Services/Country-Economic-Forecasts-Ukraine-2111-5558>
  
APA:
Oxford Economics Services. (2015). Country Economic Forecasts > Ukraine Nov 30, 2015. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Nov 04, 2026 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Oxford-Economics-Services/Country-Economic-Forecasts-Ukraine-2111-5558>
  
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