Country Economic Forecasts > Qatar

GDP grew 3.8% y/y in Q3 with non-oil GDP up 7.8% in line with the Q1-Q3 average, though well down on the 10.6% posted in 2014. Construction activity was still booming, up 20% y/y. However, since then pressures on the economy have grown as oil prices have taken a further plunge, the currency peg has come under some pressure and the US Fed funds rate has been hiked, adding to emerging signs of tighter liquidity. We expect these factors to slow non-oil growth modestly to 7% this year, from an estimated 7.9% for 2015 as a whole, with Qatars greater diversification of revenues, very large policy buffers and also the immovable infrastructure requirements associated with the 2022 World Cup meaning that any government cutbacks to preserve the fiscal position will be fairly modest. Overall GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 4.2% from an estimated 3.7% last year, due to a rebound in hydrocarbon sector output following a sharp fall in crude output in 2015.