Country Economic Forecasts > Poland - Oxford Economics Services

Country Economic Forecasts > Poland

Country Economic Forecasts > Poland - Oxford Economics Services
Country Economic Forecasts > Poland
Published May 19, 2016
10 pages — Published May 19, 2016
Price US$ 185.00  |  Buy this Report Now

About This Report

  
Abstract:

The flash GDP estimate revealed a sharp slowdown in Polish economic activity in Q1, with GDP falling by 0.1% on the quarter and reducing annual growth to 2.5% y/y. Some slowdown had been expected after a strong 2015, but this exceeded expectations. High frequency indicators suggest that the deceleration in growth was broad-based, with Q1 weakness in construction and industrial production partially due to the expiration of the EUs 2007-13 funding programme. Retail sales growth also slowed in Q1 while net trade was a drag on growth. Growth should accelerate in H2, as the disbursement of child benefits boosts consumption and investment picks up. But we have downgraded our growth forecast for 2016 to a still-decent 3.2% from 3.7% last month. Meanwhile, as expected Adam Glapinski was nominated to become governor of the central bank and will take office in June. Despite his previous hawkish stance we think that interest rates will be cut by around 25-30bps in H2 from their current 1.5%, given the surprise weakness of growth in Q1 and persistent deflationary trends.

  
Source:
Document ID
334515
Country
Format:
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Sections

Title
Poland:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output - latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

Table Of Contents

Oxford Economics Services—Oxford Economics is a leading economic forecasting consultancy, producing macroeconomic and industry forecasts, analysis and data on 175 countries.

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Cite this Report

  
MLA:
Oxford Economics Services. "Country Economic Forecasts > Poland" May 19, 2016. Alacra Store. May 18, 2025. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Oxford-Economics-Services/Country-Economic-Forecasts-Poland-2111-5907>
  
APA:
Oxford Economics Services. (2016). Country Economic Forecasts > Poland May 19, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved May 18, 2025 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Oxford-Economics-Services/Country-Economic-Forecasts-Poland-2111-5907>
  
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