Country Economic Forecasts > China - Oxford Economics Services

Country Economic Forecasts > China

Country Economic Forecasts > China - Oxford Economics Services
Country Economic Forecasts > China
Published Oct 31, 2016
11 pages — Published Oct 31, 2016
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About This Report

  
Abstract:

The Chinese economy grew by 6.7% in Q3, the same pace as in H1. Meanwhile, in September, overall fixed asset investment (FAI) growth picked up further, reflecting stronger real estate investment growth (amid surging housing sales and rapid price increases in Tier 1 cities) and strengthening corporate FAI growth, supported by a recovery in industrial profits as output prices rise again. However, we estimate that manufacturing sales volume growth moderated further in Q3, with downward pressures on industry not having disappeared and export volume growth softening again as global demand recovers only gradually and remains susceptible to setbacks. After the better than expected growth outturn in Q3, we have nudged up our GDP growth forecast for 2016 to 6.7% from 6.6% last month. However, growth remains vulnerable to downward pressures. And with GDP growth targets unnecessarily high, the government will have to keep fiscal and monetary policy expansionary. But with the current pace of credit growth clearly unsustainable, the big question for 2017 and beyond is whether the authorities will continue to aim for overly ambitious GDP growth targets or start to rein in credit growth to put growth on a more sustainable footing.

  
Source:
Document ID
347368
Country
Format:
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Sections

Title
China:
The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output - latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports - latest year

Table Of Contents

Oxford Economics Services—Oxford Economics is a leading economic forecasting consultancy, producing macroeconomic and industry forecasts, analysis and data on 175 countries.

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Cite this Report

  
MLA:
Oxford Economics Services. "Country Economic Forecasts > China" Oct 31, 2016. Alacra Store. May 07, 2025. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Oxford-Economics-Services/Country-Economic-Forecasts-China-2111-6269>
  
APA:
Oxford Economics Services. (2016). Country Economic Forecasts > China Oct 31, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved May 07, 2025 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Oxford-Economics-Services/Country-Economic-Forecasts-China-2111-6269>
  
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