Monthly Industry Briefings > Monthly Industry Forecasts > Construction

When the data is released, the UK GDP will likely be shown to have surpassed its previous peak in Q2 for the first time since the 2008/2009 recession. However, on current projections, construction may only regain its previous peak at around the end of 2017/ early 2018. This is in fact in keeping with past cycles. The ONS has published a handy analysis which shows that it is usual is for construction sector output to fall more sharply than GDP, and then to initially recover more slowly, taking longer to regain its previous peak than GDP.  With house prices now soaring, the supply of homes has been the subject of scrutiny; the building of new homes peaked in the mid 2000s and fell by 38.2% between Q1 2008 and Q2 2009 steeper than in previous downturns. Even if all is well, this sector is unlikely to surpass its previous peak until 2017. In contrast, infrastructure has been resilient all the while overall construction contracted.