On balance, prospects for household consumer spendingthis year have improved fractionally over the past threemonths, prompting a modest upgrade to our forecast forconsumer goods production (to a 3½% gain for the worldas a whole). This greater-than-expected dynamism iswholly concentrated in the emerging markets as Europeanand Japanese producers of consumer goods fail to meetearlier expectations. A gradual rebuilding of consumergoods inventories remains a feature of the forecast.