We expect global chemical output to increase by 4¼% in 2015 and 4½% in 2016 after an estimated 3¾% in 2014. Some positive signs suggest that the recovery in Europe will continue at a steady pace while US production will continue to gain from low input prices. But we have lowered medium-term forecasts further in China and we now expect output growth to slow to 5½% by the turn of the decade.