The central question driving the global outlook for engineering and metal goods is how long the emerging market slowdown will restrain developed economies. Developed countries/regions such as the US, the UK and the Eurozone have had strong prospects for some time, only to be held back in outturn performance by a series of factors attributed to external weakness. This in turn is holding back global growth: which we forecast at 2% in 2016 and 3½% in 2017.