Global basic metals production is set to slow sharply in value added terms this year and weakness is now likely to extend into 2016. We expect basic metals output growth to slow from 3% in 2014 to 1% this year and next (both revised down from our Autumn update), before growth rises to 2½% growth in 2017. China is the epicentre of sector problems, but there are very few bright spots elsewhere in the world.