WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKFEBRUARY 4, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Wider Spreads Sap Liquidity and Boost Defaults Credit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Wider Spreads Sap Liquidity and Boost Defaults.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week will return next weekThe Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, For US$-denominated bond offerings, Januarys +24.8% yearly advance by investment-grade issuance differed radically from the accompanying -45.8% plunge by new high-yield supply, begin on page 13. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 13 Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Downgrades and Defaults on the Rise. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 16 Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 18 Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: bank risk, WFC, AIG, BAC, sov risk, JPM, credit, MS, GS, DB, Satellite. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 22Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be less than its recent 180 bp. High Yield: Recent spread of 820 bp may approximate 700 bp by year-end 2016.Defaults US HY default rate: December 2015, 3.2%; Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts 4.2% by November 2016.Issuance In 2015, US$-denominated investment-grade (IG) bond offerings advanced by 17.5% to $1.326 trillion, while US$-denominated high-yield bond issuance sank by -15.0% to $358 billion. For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may rise by 2.4% to $1.358 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may drop by -18.3% to $293 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Jack Chambers +61 (2) 9270-8111 Jack.chambers@moodys.comEditor Dana Go...
