WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKJUNE 11, 2015CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Wide Spreads Limit Fed Funds RiseCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Wide Spreads Limit Fed Funds Rise. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week by Ben Garber Upside to the Oil Price Plunge.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 9 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, An extended contraction by operating profits is a bigger risk for corporate bond issuance compared to a mild rise by the fed funds rate, begin on page 18.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 18Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh European Bank and US Housing Upgrades.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 21Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 23Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: ICBC, DB, Greece, Target, fundamentals, JNJ, bank risk, GECC, VZ, Greece, Brazil, yields, Colgate-Palmolive, ECB, ConAgra Foods. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 27Credit Spreads Investment Grade: Year-end 2015 spread to resemble its recent 143 bp.High Yield: Recent spread of 457 bp could approximate 460 bp by year-end 2015.Defaults US HY default rate: May 2015, 1.9%; 3.1% by spring 2016Issuance For 2015, US$ IG bond offerings may grow by 13% to $1.274 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance dips by -2% to $414 billion. In 2014, US$ IG bond issuance rose by 0.9% to $1.129 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance dropped by -2.3% to $421 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Zach Witton 44 (20) 7772-1678 Zach.witton@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Faraz Syed 1.612.9270.8146 Faraz.syed@moodys.com Emily Dabbs 1.612.9270.8159 Emily.dabbs@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comCAPITAL M...
