Wide Spreads Likely until the Next Upturn (Capital Markets Research)

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKAPRIL 7, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Wide Spreads Likely until the Next UpturnCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Wide Spreads Likely until the Next Upturn. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week by Ben Garber Divergent Outlooks to Global Credit.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 4The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 7 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Despite Marchs upswing by high yield offerings from 2016s first two months, the moving yearlong sum of high yield bond issuance should trail its current cycle high until the next upturn, begin on page 17. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 17 Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Fewer Downgrades and a Few Upgrades Tease. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 20 Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 22 Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: banks, Amazon, PEMEX, Brexit, Fed, Hungary, rally, builders, Brazil, BNPP, profits, OXY, Valeant, USB, DB, STANLN. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 26Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to resemble its recent 153 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 710 bp, it may approximate 680 bp by year-end 2016.Defaults US HY default rate: after February 2016s 3.6%, Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts 5.5% by January 2017.Issuance In 2015, US$-denominated investment grade (IG) bond offerings advanced by 17.5% to $1.297 trillion, while US$-priced high yield bond issuance sank by -19.5% to $289 billion. For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 8.1% to $1.434 trillion, while US$-priced high yield bond issuance may sink by -13.6% to $310 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's ...