WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKJANUARY 7, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Volatility Imperils LiquidityCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Volatility Imperils Liquidity. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 4 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, High-yield bond issuance will remain paltry until markets stabilize, begin on page 11.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 11Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Activity Slow, but Still Mostly Downgrades.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 14Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 16Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Stressed EDF, risk, spreads. CHK, corp cred, COP, Slovakia, Hess, BBT, banks, PEMEX, UNH, sov risk, NAB, profits, ICICI, TLAC, Nike. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 20Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be a close to its recent 164 bp. High Yield: Recent spread of 715 bp may approximate 675 bp by year-end 2016. Defaults US HY default rate: November 2015, 3.0%; MoodysCredit Policy Group forecasts 4.1% by November 2016.Issuance For 2016, US$ IG bond issuance may dip by -1.8% to $1.301 trillion, while HY bond issuance may drop by -12.1% to $310 billion. In 2015, US$ IG bond offerings advanced by 17.4% to $1.325 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance sank by -16.4% to $352 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Ruth Stroppiana +61 (2) 9270-8166 Ruth.stroppiana@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comCAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH2 JANUARY 7, 2016 CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH, INC. / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COMCredit Markets Review and OutlookCred...
