VIX Is Low, Overvaluation Risk Is Not (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research

VIX Is Low, Overvaluation Risk Is Not (Capital Markets Research)

VIX Is Low, Overvaluation Risk Is Not (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research
VIX Is Low, Overvaluation Risk Is Not (Capital Markets Research)
Published Jan 26, 2017
30 pages — Published Jan 26, 2017
Price US$ 750.00  |  Buy this Report Now

About This Report

  
Abstract:

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK JANUARY 26, 2017 CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH Moodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page. VIX Is Low, Overvaluation Risk Is Not Credit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski VIX Is Low, Overvaluation Risk Is Not. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2 Topic of the Week by Ben Garber Asia Economic Commentary: Demonetization Improves Indian Bank Credit Risk Signals. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5 The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 9 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, An expected series of Fed rate hikes may drive new spec- grade bank loans up to a new record high for January, begin on page 18. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 18 Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Downgrades in US, Upgrades in Europe. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 22 Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 24 Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: UK, deregulation, potential, BAC, optimism, Portugal, DB, revisions, outlook, US, great, China, Italy, inflation, OPEC, guidance, sovereigns, inflation, Italy, jolt, Trumponomics. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 28 Credit Spreads Investment Grade: Year-end 2017 spread to exceed its recent 120 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 394 bp, it may approximate 450 bp by year-end 2017. Defaults US HY default rate: after December 2016s 5.7%, Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts it near 3.9% by 2H 2017. Issuance In 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance grew by 5.0% to a record $1.405 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance fell by -3.9% to $339 billion. For 2017, US$- denominated IG bond issuance may rise by 0.5% to $1.411 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may increase by 3.6% to $352 billion. Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li 1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.com Moody's Analytics/Europ...

  
Source:
Document ID
PBC_194180
Report Type
Market Outlook
Format:
PDF Adobe Acrobat
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Sections

TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
The Week Ahead11
The Long View11
Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh11
Downgrades in US, Upgrades in Europe.11
Market Data11
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications11
Weekly Market Outlook Contributors:11
Credit Markets Review and Outlook23
  Record highs for stocks, not so for profits21
  Interest rate risk now poses the biggest danger to stocks31
  VIX Index stays low despite risks surrounding overvalued equities41
Topic of the Week By Ben Garber, Economist, Moody s Capital Markets Research, Inc.54
  Bank probabilities of default uniformly decline51
  The distressed loan hangover is not resolved61
  Scale of economic disruption is immense71
  The RBI has room to help72
The Week Ahead US, Europe, Asia-Pacific99
  THE US91
    Friday, January 2791
  GDP Fourth Quarter (Advance Estimate)91
  Durable Goods Orders December91
  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment January Final91
    Monday, January 3091
  Personal Income &Spending December91
  Pending Home Sales Index - December91
    Tuesday, January 31101
  S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index November101
  Conference Board Consumer Confidence January101
    Wednesday, February 1101
  ISM Manufacturing Index January101
  Construction Spending December101
  FOMC Rate Decision101
  Vehicle Sales January101
    Thursday, February 2101
  Productivity &Unit Labor Costs Fourth Quarter Preliminary111
    Friday, February 3111
  Employment Report January111
  ISM Non-Manufacturing Index January111
  Factory Orders December111
  EUROPE111
    Friday, January 20121
  U.K.: Retail Sales (December; 9:30 a.m. GMT)121
    Monday, January 23121
  Russia: Industrial Production (December; 1:30 p.m. GMT)121
    Tuesday, January 24131
    Wednesday, January 25131
    Thursday, January 26131
  Italy: Retail Sales (November; 9:00 a.m. GMT)131
  U.K.: GDP Production Breakdown (Q4; 9:30 a.m. GMT)131
  Germany: Ifo Business Climate Index (January; 11:00 a.m. GMT)131
    Friday, January 27141
  Euro Zone: Monetary Aggregates (December; 9:00 a.m. GMT)141
  Asia-Pacific141
    Friday, January 27141
  Japan Consumer Price Index December141
  Singapore Employment 2016Q4141
    Monday, January 30151
  New Zealand Foreign Trade December151
  Japan Retail Sales December151
  Thailand Industrial Production December151
    Tuesday, January 31151
  Japan Employment Situation December151
  Japan Household Expenditures Survey December151
  Japan Industrial Production December151
  Japan Monetary Policy January161
  Japan Housing Starts December161
  Thailand Private Consumption December161
  Thailand Foreign Trade December161
  South Korea Foreign Trade January161
    Wednesday, February 1161
  New Zealand Employment Situation 2016Q4161
  South Korea Industrial Production December171
  South Korea Retail Sales December171
    Thursday, February 2171
  Japan Consumer Confidence January171
  South Korea Consumer Price Index January171
  Australia Foreign Trade December171
    Friday, February 3171
The Long View184
  Credit spreads181
  The recent high-yield bond spread of 394 bp is less than what is predicted by the spread s macroeconomic drivers and the high-yield EDF metric, but it is wider than what might be inferred from a now below-trend VIX index. The implications for liquidit...181
  Defaults181
  US CORPORATE BOND ISSUANCE181
  US Economic Outlook191
  EUROPE191
  Asia Pacific202
Ratings Round-Up221
Ratings Round-Up221
Ratings Round-Up231
Market Data244
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications283

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Moody's Capital Markets Research—Moody's Analytics offers research, unique tools and best practices for measuring and managing risk through expertise and experience in credit analysis, economic research and financial risk management.

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Cite this Report

  
MLA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. "VIX Is Low, Overvaluation Risk Is Not (Capital Markets Research)" Jan 26, 2017. Alacra Store. Oct 31, 2024. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/VIX-Is-Low-Overvaluation-Risk-Is-Not-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3204>
  
APA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. (2017). VIX Is Low, Overvaluation Risk Is Not (Capital Markets Research) Jan 26, 2017. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Oct 31, 2024 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/VIX-Is-Low-Overvaluation-Risk-Is-Not-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3204>
  
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