WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKFEBRUARY 11, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Treasury Bonds Thrive as Markets DiveCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Treasury Bonds Thrive as Markets Dive. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week by Ben Garber No Longer Cuckoo for CoCos.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 8 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, First quarter 2016s worldwide issuance of corporate bonds may incur year-over-year setbacks of -22% for investment-grade and -60% for high-yield, begin on page 20. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 20 Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Commodity Downgrade Story Continues. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 23 Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 25 Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: MRO, EDF, Encana, Devon, UK, spreads, bank risk, WFC, AIG, BAC, sov risk, JPM, credit, MS, GS, DB, Satellite. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 29Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be less than its recent 183 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 873 bp, it may approximate 750 bp by year-end 2016.Defaults US HY default rate: December 2015, 3.2%; Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts 4.2% by November 2016.Issuance In 2015, US$-denominated investment-grade (IG) bond offerings advanced by 17.5% to $1.297 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance sank by -19.5% to $289 billion. For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may sink by -2.2% to $1.358 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may drop by -18.3% to $293 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Alaistair Chan +61 (2) 9270-8148 A...
