WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 12, 2015CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see thelast page.The Credit Cycle WanesCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski The Credit Cycle Wanes. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week by Ben Garber More Distress Equals More Defaults.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 6The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 9 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Novembers $16.1 billion of US$-denominated high-yield bond offerings already tops the $12.6 billion of month-long October 2015, but trails the $37.0 billion of November 2014, begin on page 19.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 19Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Downgrades Not Letting Up.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 22Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 24Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: WY, KEY, corp credit, ALL, Saudi, spreads, TWC, bank risk, GT, CVS, UK, sov risk, GM. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 28Credit Spreads Investment Grade: Year-end 2015 spread to be close to its recent 155 bp.High Yield: Recent spread of 595 bp should approximate 585 bp by year-end 2015.Defaults US HY default rate: September 2015, 2.5%; Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts 3.8% by September 2016Issuance For 2015, US$ IG bond offerings may grow by 20% to $1.352 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance sinks by -15% to $357 billion. In 2014, US$ IG bond issuance rose by 0.9% to $1.129 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance dropped by -2.3% to $421 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Emily Dabbs +61 (2) 9270-8148 Emily.dabbs @moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comCAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH2 NOVEM...
