The Brexit of Champions (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research

The Brexit of Champions (Capital Markets Research)

The Brexit of Champions (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research
The Brexit of Champions (Capital Markets Research)
Published Jun 30, 2016
21 pages — Published Jun 30, 2016
Price US$ 750.00  |  Buy this Report Now

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Abstract:

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKJUNE 30, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHThe Brexit of ChampionsCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski The Brexit of Champions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 4The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, A rise by downside risks lowers Treasury yields, which benefits higher quality bonds more than lower grade issues, begin on page 10. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 10 Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Upgrade/Downgrade Ratios Invert. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 13 Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 15 Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Ratings, Brexit, compensation, Angang, Hungary, foreboding, ECB, FedEx, Portugal, XOM, equities, SOCGEN, CASA, YUM. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 19Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be close to its recent 147 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 641 bp, it may approximate 650 bp by year-end 2016.Defaults US HY default rate: after May 2016s 5.0%, Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts 6.4% by Q4 2016.Issuance In 2015, US$-denominated investment-grade (IG) bond offerings advanced by 17.5% to $1.326 trillion, while US$-denominated high-yield bond issuance sank by -15.0% to $358 billion. For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 3.4% to a record $1.371 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may sink by -16.1% to $297 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Jack Chambers +61 (2) 9270-8118 Jack.chambers@moodys.com Emily Dabbs +61 (2) 9270-8159 Emily.dabbs@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the las...

  
Source:
Document ID
PBC_190803
Report Type
Market Outlook
Format:
PDF Adobe Acrobat
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Sections

TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
The Week Ahead11
The Long View11
Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh11
Upgrade/Downgrade Ratios Invert.11
Market Data11
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications11
Weekly Market Outlook Contributors:11
Credit Markets Review and Outlook22
  For the US, Brexit may more closely resemble Y2K than Lehman21
  Credit shrugs off Brexit for now21
  Industrial commodity prices stand up to Brexit31
  Exchange rate volatility highlights global vulnerabilities31
  Downside risks dominate US outlook regardless of Brexit31
The Week Ahead US, Europe, Asia-Pacific46
  THE US41
    Friday, July 141
  ISM Manufacturing Index June41
  Construction Spending May41
  Vehicle Sales June41
    Tuesday, July 541
  Factory Orders May41
    Wednesday, July 641
  Trade Balance May41
  ISM Non-Manufacturing Index June51
  FOMC Meeting Minutes51
    Friday, July 851
  Employment Report June51
  EUROPE51
    Friday, July 161
  Russia: GDP (1st Quarter; 5:30 a.m. BST)61
  Italy: Employment Situation (May; 9:00 a.m. BST)61
  Euro Zone: Unemployment (May; 10:00 a.m. BST)61
  Asia-Pacific71
    Friday, July 171
  South Korea Consumer Price Index June71
  Japan Consumer Price Index May71
  Japan Employment Situation May71
  Japan Household Expenditures Survey May81
  Japan Tankan Survey 2016Q281
  South Korea Foreign Trade June81
  Malaysia Foreign Trade May81
  Japan Consumer Confidence June81
    Monday, July 481
    Tuesday, July 581
  Taiwan Consumer Price Index June91
  Australia Foreign Trade May91
  Australia Retail Sales May91
  Australia Monetary Policy July91
    Wednesday, July 691
    Thursday, July 791
    Friday, July 891
  Taiwan Foreign Trade June91
The Long View103
  Credit spreads101
  Defaults101
  Through the first 26 weeks of 2016, US$-denominated corporate bond issuance showed year-over-year percent changes of a -4.7% drop for investment-grade and a -28.1% plunge for high-yield. US economic outlook111
  The mid-point of the range for fed funds should finish 2016 no greater than 0.875%. In view of the considerable under-utilization of the world s productive resources, low inflation should help to rein in treasury bond yields. As long as labor is gro...111
  EUROPE111
  The euro zone economy will likely slow this and next year due to the U.K. exit from the European Union. Although we still expect the economy to expand, we have cut the growth estimates to 1.3% for this year and to 1.1% for next year, from 1.6% and 1.8...111
  Although the annual euro zone inflation accelerated slightly in June thanks to a softer decline in energy prices, the U.K. exit from the EU will weigh on the economy, which will likely push consumer prices lower. Inflation will remain subdued in comin...111
  The subdued inflation forecast and the U.K. exit will likely prompt the European Central Bank to prolong its asset purchases after March 2017, while providing additional liquidity through targeted long-term refinancing operations. Although the ECB rev...111
  Moody s Analytics expects U.K. economic growth to moderate to 1.5% this year and to 0.5% next year. Heightened uncertainty after its exit has rattled financial markets, with the pound plunging and equity indexes around the world falling. Although U.K....111
  The U.K. will face tough talks on its place in the single market. While the EU says British access to its market depends on labor movement freedom, the U.K. would aim for the country to stay in the single market while putting a stop to immigration. Am...111
  Asia Pacific121
Ratings Round-Up131
Ratings Round-Up131
Ratings Round-Up141
Market Data154
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications193

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MLA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. "The Brexit of Champions (Capital Markets Research)" Jun 30, 2016. Alacra Store. May 04, 2025. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/The-Brexit-of-Champions-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3103>
  
APA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. (2016). The Brexit of Champions (Capital Markets Research) Jun 30, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved May 04, 2025 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/The-Brexit-of-Champions-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3103>
  
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