WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKOCTOBER 15, 2015CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Stagnant Sales Reduce Rate Hike OddsCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Stagnant Sales Reduce Rate Hike Odds. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Octobers dearth of high-yield bond offerings stems from a potentially noteworthy increase in investor risk aversion, begin on page 13.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 13Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh A Less Negative Direction.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 16Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 18Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: HSY, VOD, AA, household debt, HAL, credit quality, Pepsi, Valeant, APP, bank risk, sov risk, spreads, RL, GLEN, Intel, CVC, SoftBank, S. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 20Credit Spreads Investment Grade: Year-end 2015 spread to be under its recent 165 bp.High Yield: Recent spread of 644 bp should approximate 620 bp by year-end 2015.Defaults US HY default rate: August 2015, 2.3%; Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts 3.4% by July 2016Issuance For 2015, US$ IG bond offerings may grow by 19% to $1.345 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance sinks by -11% to $375.5 billion. In 2014, US$ IG bond issuance rose by 0.9% to $1.129 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance dropped by -2.3% to $421 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Katrina Ell +61 (2) 9270-8144 Katrina.ell @moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comCAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH2 OCTOBER 15, 2015 CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH, INC. / MARKET OUTLOOK / MOODYS.COMCred...
