Shareholders Gain at Creditors' Expense (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research

Shareholders Gain at Creditors' Expense (Capital Markets Research)

Shareholders Gain at Creditors' Expense (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research
Shareholders Gain at Creditors' Expense (Capital Markets Research)
Published Jul 21, 2016
28 pages — Published Jul 21, 2016
Price US$ 750.00  |  Buy this Report Now

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Abstract:

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKJULY 21, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHShareholders Gain at Creditors ExpenseCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Shareholders Gain at Creditors Expense. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week by Ben Garber Cautious US Consumer Borrowing Pace Bolsters Recovery. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 9The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Investment-grade bond issuance has yet to soar in response to very fixed-rate borrowing costs, begin on page 16.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 16 Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Upgrades Exceed Downgrades, But& ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 20 Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 22 Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Brexit, yields, bondholders, cred risk, sov risk, MIRs, jobs, ratings, Brexit, compensation, Angang, Hungary, foreboding, ECB,FedEx, Portugal. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 26 CreditSpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be close to its recent 141 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 558 bp, it may approximate 630 bp by year-end 2016. Defaults US HY default rate: after June 2016s 5.1%, MoodysCredit Policy Group forecasts 6.4% by Q4 2016. Issuance In 2015, US$-denominated investment-grade (IG) bond offerings advanced by 17.5% to $1.326 trillion, whileUS$-denominated high-yield bond issuance sank by -15.0% to $358 billion. For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 5.1% to a record $1.394 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may sink by -15.9% to $298 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Emily Dabbs +61 (2) 9270-8159 Emily,dabbs@moodys.com Faraz Syed +61 (2) 9270-8146 Faraz.syed@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of M...

  
Source:
Document ID
PBC_191248
Report Type
Market Outlook
Format:
PDF Adobe Acrobat
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Sections

TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
The Week Ahead11
The Long View11
Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh11
Upgrades Exceed Downgrades, But 11
Market Data11
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications11
Weekly Market Outlook Contributors:11
Credit Markets Review and Outlook23
  Shareholder compensation is in late cycle mode21
  Stock buybacks might yet match yearlong 2007 s record pace31
  Shareholder compensation downgrades dominate equity-infusion upgrades32
Topic of the Week By Ben Garber, Economist, Moody s Capital Markets Research, Inc.54
  Consumer leverage is still shrinking51
  Home lending is showing signs of life52
  Securitized consumer credit is performing strongly71
  Low rates add value to housing72
The Week Ahead US, Europe, Asia-Pacific97
  THE US91
    Tuesday, July 2691
  S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index May91
  Conference Board Consumer Confidence July91
  New Home Sales June91
    Wednesday, July 2791
  Durable Goods Orders June91
  Pending Home Sales Index June91
  FOMC Rate Decision July91
    Friday, July 29101
  GDP Second Quarter (Advance Estimate101
  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment July Final101
  EUROPE101
  Asia-Pacific111
    Friday, July 22111
  Taiwan Domestic Trade June111
  Taiwan Industrial Production June121
    Monday, July 25121
  Japan Foreign Trade June121
    Tuesday, July 26121
  New Zealand Foreign Trade June121
  South Korea GDP 2016Q2121
  Singapore Industrial Production June121
  Hong Kong Foreign Trade June121
    Wednesday, July 27131
  South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index July131
  Australia Consumer Price Index 2016Q2131
    Thursday, July 28131
  Singapore Employment 2016Q2131
    Friday, July 29131
  South Korea Industrial Production June131
  South Korea Retail Sales June131
  Japan Consumer Price Index June141
  Japan Employment Situation June141
  Japan Household Expenditures Survey June141
  Japan Industrial Production June141
  Japan Retail Sales June141
  Taiwan GDP 2016Q2141
  Japan Monetary Policy July151
  Japan Housing Starts June151
  Thailand Private Consumption June151
  Thailand Foreign Trade June151
  Thailand Industrial Production June151
The Long View164
  Credit spreads161
  Defaults161
  Through the first 29 weeks of 2016, US$-denominated corporate bond issuance showed year-over-year percent changes of a -2.4% drop for investment-grade and a -29.1% plunge for high-yield. US economic outlook171
  The mid-point of the range for fed funds should finish 2016 no greater than 0.875%. In view of the considerable under-utilization of the world s productive resources, low inflation should help to rein in treasury bond yields. As long as labor is gro...171
  EUROPE171
  The euro zone economy will likely slow this and next year due to the U.K. exit from the European Union. Although we still expect the economy to expand, we have cut the growth estimates to 1.3% for this year and to 1.1% for next year, from 1.6% and 1.8...171
  Although the annual euro zone inflation accelerated slightly in June thanks to a softer decline in energy prices, the U.K. exit from the EU will weigh on the economy, which will likely push consumer prices lower. Inflation will remain subdued in comin...171
  With stabilizing financial markets, the European Central Bank followed the Bank of England and refrained from lowering its policy rate or announcing more quantitative easing this week. The immediate risk of financial market contagion after the U.K. vo...171
  Moody s Analytics expects U.K. economic growth to moderate to 1.5% this year and to 0.5% next year. Heightened uncertainty after its exit has rattled financial markets, with the pound plunging and equity indexes around the world falling. The U.K. will...171
  The Bank of England surprised markets by keeping its policy rate and asset-purchase program unchanged on Thursday, the first since the U.K. voted to leave the EU. The bank s decision seems justified. Although the pound's depreciation could support the...181
  Asia Pacific182
Ratings Round-Up201
Ratings Round-Up201
Ratings Round-Up211
Market Data224
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications263

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Cite this Report

  
MLA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. "Shareholders Gain at Creditors' Expense (Capital Markets Research)" Jul 21, 2016. Alacra Store. May 04, 2025. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Shareholders-Gain-at-Creditors-Expense-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3115>
  
APA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. (2016). Shareholders Gain at Creditors' Expense (Capital Markets Research) Jul 21, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved May 04, 2025 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Shareholders-Gain-at-Creditors-Expense-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3115>
  
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