Rate Hikes Will Be the Least of Market Worries (Capital Markets Research)

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKSEPTEMBER 15, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Rate Hikes Will Be the Least of Market Worries Credit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Rate Hikes Will Be the Least of Market Worries.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week by Ben Garber Corporate Issuance Booms, Post-Brexit.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 8The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Wider spreads have yet to materially slow high-yield bond issuance, begin on page 13. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 13 Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Accentuating the Positive. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 19 Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 19 Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: ECB, defaults, EDFs, Swiber, defaults, Mexico, stability, retail, Portugal, overvalued, Pakistan, productivity, gold, Venezuela, economy, Italy, pricey, borrowing. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 23Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be close to its recent 142 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 538 bp, it may approximate 610 bp by year-end 2016. Defaults US HY default rate: after August 2016s 5.7%, MoodysCredit Policy Group forecasts it near 4.5% by the summer of 2017. Issuance For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 6.0% to a record $1.406 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may sink by -12.1% to $311 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Emily Dabbs +61 (2) 9270-8159 Emily.Dabbs @moodys.com Faraz Syed +61 (2) 9270-8146 Faraz.Syed @moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comCAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH...