Rate Hike Won't Hurt Bonds Amid Low Inflation (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research

Rate Hike Won't Hurt Bonds Amid Low Inflation (Capital Markets Research)

Rate Hike Won't Hurt Bonds Amid Low Inflation (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research
Rate Hike Won't Hurt Bonds Amid Low Inflation (Capital Markets Research)
Published Mar 23, 2017
26 pages — Published Mar 23, 2017
Price US$ 750.00  |  Buy this Report Now

About This Report

  
Abstract:

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK MARCH 23, 2017 CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH Moodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page. Rate Hike Wont Hurt Bonds Amid Low Inflation Credit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Rate Hike Wont Hurt Bonds Amid Low Inflation. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2 The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, First- quarter 2017s sum of new US$ high-yield bonds and high-yield bank loan programs should set a new zenith of at least $300 billion, begin on page 14. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 14 Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Downgrades Prevail. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 18 Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 20 Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Global, profits, Korea, Caa, yes, hike, VIX, rates, France, demography, boom, Japan, reform, India, Turkey, risk, UK, deregulation, potential, BC, optimism. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 24 Credit Spreads Investment Grade: Year-end 2017 spread to exceed its recent 120 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 428 bp, it may approximate 480 bp by year-end 2017. Defaults US HY default rate: after February 2017s 5.4%, Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts it near 3.1% during the three- months-ended February 2018. Issuance In 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance grew by 5.6% to a record $1.412 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance fell by -3.5% to $341 billion. For 2017, US$- denominated IG bond issuance may rise by 2.4% to a new zenith of $1.446 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may increase by 14.2% to $389 billion, which would lag 2014s $435 billion. Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li 1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.com Moody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Toma...

  
Source:
Document ID
PBC_195071
Report Type
Market Outlook
Format:
PDF Adobe Acrobat
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Sections

TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
The Week Ahead11
The Long View11
Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh11
Downgrades Prevail.11
Market Data11
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications11
Weekly Market Outlook Contributors:11
Credit Markets Review and Outlook23
  Prolonged climb by high-yield EDF will sink equities21
  Rate hikes offer no assurance of higher Treasury bond yields31
  Trends affecting autos and rents lessen core inflation risk32
The Week Ahead US, Europe, Asia-Pacific59
  THE US51
    Friday, March 2451
  Durable Goods Orders February51
    Tuesday, March 2851
  S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index January51
  Conference Board Consumer Confidence March51
    Wednesday, March 2951
  Pending Home Sales Index February51
    Thursday, March 3051
  GDP Fourth Quarter (Third Estimate)51
    Friday, March 3161
  Personal Income &Spending February61
  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment March Final61
  EUROPE61
    Thursday, March 1671
  Euro Zone: Consumer Price Index (February; 10:00 a.m. GMT)71
  U.K.: Monetary Policy and Minutes (March; 12:00 a.m. GMT)71
    Friday, March 1771
    Monday, March 2071
    Tuesday, March 2171
  U.K.: Consumer Price Index (February; 9:30 a.m. GMT)71
  Spain: Foreign Trade (January; 9:30 a.m. GMT)81
    Wednesday, March 2281
  Euro Zone: Current Account (January; 9:00 a.m. GMT)81
    Thursday, March 2381
  U.K.: Retail Sales (February; 9:30 a.m. GMT)81
    Friday, March 2491
  France: GDP (Q4; 6:30 a.m. GMT)91
  Asia-Pacific91
    Thursday, March 23101
  New Zealand Monetary Policy March101
  Taiwan Industrial Production February101
  Taiwan Domestic Trade February101
    Friday, March 24101
  South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index March101
  New Zealand Foreign Trade February111
  Singapore Industrial Production February111
    Monday, March 27111
  Hong Kong Foreign Trade February111
    Tuesday, March 28111
  South Korea GDP 2016Q4111
    Wednesday, March 29111
  Japan Retail Sales February111
  Thailand Monetary Policy March111
    Thursday, March 30121
    Friday, March 31121
  South Korea Industrial Production February121
  South Korea Retail Sales February121
  Japan Consumer Price Index February121
  Japan Employment Situation February121
  Japan Household Expenditures Survey February121
  Japan Industrial Production February131
  China Manufacturing PMI March131
  Japan Housing Starts February131
  Thailand Private Consumption February131
  Thailand Industrial Production February131
  Thailand Foreign Trade February131
The Long View144
  Credit spreads141
  The recent high-yield bond spread of 428 bp is less than what is predicted by the spread s macroeconomic drivers and the high-yield EDF metric, but it is wider than what might be inferred from a now below-trend VIX index. The implications for liquidit...141
  Defaults141
  US CORPORATE BOND ISSUANCE141
  US Economic Outlook151
  EUROPE152
  Asia Pacific171
Ratings Round-Up181
Ratings Round-Up181
Ratings Round-Up191
Market Data204
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications243

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Moody's Capital Markets Research—Moody's Analytics offers research, unique tools and best practices for measuring and managing risk through expertise and experience in credit analysis, economic research and financial risk management.

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Cite this Report

  
MLA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. "Rate Hike Won't Hurt Bonds Amid Low Inflation (Capital Markets Research)" Mar 23, 2017. Alacra Store. Apr 24, 2024. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Rate-Hike-Won-t-Hurt-Bonds-Amid-Low-Inflation-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3231>
  
APA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. (2017). Rate Hike Won't Hurt Bonds Amid Low Inflation (Capital Markets Research) Mar 23, 2017. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Apr 24, 2024 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Rate-Hike-Won-t-Hurt-Bonds-Amid-Low-Inflation-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3231>
  
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