Productivity Slump Dampens Outlook (Capital Markets Research)

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKAUGUST 11, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHProductivity Slump Dampens OutlookCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Productivity Slump Dampens Outlook. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 6The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, This is shaping up to be an atypically lively August for corporate bond issuance, begin on page 14. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 14 Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Mixed Messages. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 18 Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 20 Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Gold, Venezuela, economy, Italy, pricey, borrowing, Turkey, shareholders, Brexit, yields, bondholders, cred risk, sov risk, MIRs, jobs, ratings, Brexit. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 24Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be close to its recent 144 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 553bp, it may approximate 625 bp by year-end 2016. Defaults US HY default rate: after June 2016s 5.5%, MoodysCredit Policy Group forecasts 6.3% by Q4 2016. Issuance In 2015, US$-denominated investment-grade (IG) bond offerings advanced by 17.5% to $1.326 trillion, whileUS$-denominated high-yield bond issuance sank by -15.0% to $358 billion. For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 8.8% to a record $1.443 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may sink by -9.9% to $319 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Jack Chambers +61 (2) 9270-8159 Jack.chambers@moodys.com Faraz Syed +61 (2) 9270-8146 Faraz.syed@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the...