Pricey Stocks and Subpar Profits Curb M&A and Age the Cycle (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research

Pricey Stocks and Subpar Profits Curb M&A and Age the Cycle (Capital Markets Research)

Pricey Stocks and Subpar Profits Curb M&A and Age the Cycle (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research
Pricey Stocks and Subpar Profits Curb M&A and Age the Cycle (Capital Markets Research)
Published Jul 28, 2016
27 pages — Published Jul 28, 2016
Price US$ 750.00  |  Buy this Report Now

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Abstract:

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKJULY 28, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHPricey Stocks and Subpar Profits Curb M&A and Age the Cycle Credit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Pricey Stocks and Subpar Profits Curb M&A and Age the Cycle.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, July 2016's US$ investment-grade bond issuance likely to plunge by -20% yearly, begin on page 15.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 15 Ratings Round-Up by Ben Garber and Njundu Sanneh Rating Downgrade Slant Points to Sputtering Credit Cycle. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 19 Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 21 Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Borrowing, Turkey, shareholders, Brexit, yields, bondholders, cred risk, sov risk, MIRs, jobs, ratings, Brexit, compensation, Angang, Hungary. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 25 CreditSpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be close to its recent 145 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 570 bp, it may approximate 630 bp by year-end 2016. Defaults US HY default rate: after June 2016s 5.1%, MoodysCredit Policy Group forecasts 6.4% by Q4 2016. Issuance In 2015, US$-denominated investment-grade (IG) bond offerings advanced by 17.5% to $1.326 trillion, whileUS$-denominated high-yield bond issuance sank by -15.0% to $358 billion. For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 4.3% to a record $1.383 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may sink by -15.9% to $298 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Jack Chambers +61 (2) 9270-8159 Jack.chambers@moodys.com Faraz Syed +61 (2) 9270-8146 Faraz.syed@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analyt...

  
Source:
Document ID
PBC_191360
Report Type
Market Outlook
Format:
PDF Adobe Acrobat
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Sections

TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
The Week Ahead11
The Long View11
Ratings Round-Up by Ben Garber and Njundu Sanneh11
Rating Downgrade Slant Points to Sputtering Credit Cycle.11
Market Data11
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications11
Weekly Market Outlook Contributors:11
Credit Markets Review and Outlook23
  Earnings growth can be bought via M&A21
  M&A set previous record highs in 2007 and 200031
  M&A goes from being a net benefit to a net drag on credit quality32
The Week Ahead US, Europe, Asia-Pacific510
  THE US51
    Friday, July 2951
  GDP Second Quarter (Advance Estimate)51
  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment July Final51
    Monday, August 151
  Construction Spending June51
  ISM Manufacturing Index July51
    Tuesday, August 251
  Personal Income &Spending June51
  Vehicle Sales July61
    Wednesday, August 361
  ISM Non-Manufacturing Index July61
    Thursday, August 461
  Factory Orders June61
    Friday, August 561
  Employment Report July61
  Trade Balance June61
  EUROPE71
    Monday, July 2571
    Tuesday, July 2671
  Germany: Retail Sales (June; 8:00 a.m. BST)71
    Wednesday, July 2771
  Spain: Retail Sales (June; 8:05 a.m. BST)81
  U.K.: GDP Production Breakdown (Q2; 9:30 a.m. BST)81
    Thursday, July 2881
  Germany: Employment Situation (July; 9:00 a.m. BST)81
    Friday, July 2981
  France: GDP (Q2; 6:30 a.m. BST)81
  Italy: Employment Situation (June; 9:00 a.m. BST)91
  Euro Zone: Preliminary Consumer Price Index (July; 10:00 a.m. BST)91
  Euro Zone: Unemployment (June; 10:00 a.m. BST)91
  Asia-Pacific101
    Friday, July 29101
  South Korea Industrial Production June101
  South Korea Retail Sales June101
  Japan Consumer Price Index June101
  Japan Employment Situation June101
  Japan Household Expenditures Survey June111
  Japan Industrial Production June111
  Japan Retail Sales June111
  Taiwan GDP 2016Q2111
  Japan Monetary Policy July111
  Japan Housing Starts June111
  Thailand Private Consumption June121
  Thailand Foreign Trade June121
  Thailand Industrial Production June121
    Monday, August 1121
  South Korea Foreign Trade July121
    Tuesday, August 2121
  South Korea Consumer Price Index July121
  Australia Foreign Trade June121
  Australia Monetary Policy August131
  Japan Consumer Confidence July131
  India Monetary Policy August131
    Wednesday, August 3131
  New Zealand Employment Situation 2016Q2131
  Thailand Monetary Policy August131
    Thursday, August 4131
  Australia Retail Sales June131
    Friday, August 5141
  Taiwan Consumer Price Index July141
  Malaysia Foreign Trade June141
The Long View154
  Credit spreads151
  Defaults151
  Through the first 30 weeks of 2016, US$-denominated corporate bond issuance showed year-over-year percent changes of a -2.6% drop for investment-grade and a -27.9% plunge for high-yield. US economic outlook161
  EUROPE161
  The euro zone economy will likely slow this and next year due to the U.K. exit from the European Union. Although we still expect the economy to expand, we have cut the growth estimates to 1.4% for this year and to 1.3% for next year, from 1.6% and 1.8...161
  Although the annual euro zone inflation accelerated slightly in June thanks to a softer decline in energy prices, the U.K. exit from the EU will weigh on the economy, which will likely push consumer prices lower. Inflation will remain subdued in comin...161
  With stabilizing financial markets, the European Central Bank followed the Bank of England and refrained from lowering its policy rate or announcing more quantitative easing this week. The immediate risk of financial market contagion after the U.K. vo...161
  Moody s Analytics expects U.K. economic growth to moderate to 1.5% this year and to 0.5% next year. Heightened uncertainty after its exit has rattled financial markets, with the pound plunging and equity indexes around the world falling. The U.K. will...171
  The Bank of England surprised markets by keeping its policy rate and asset-purchase program unchanged last Thursday, the first since the U.K. voted to leave the EU. The bank s decision seems justified. Although the pound's depreciation could support t...171
  Asia Pacific172
Ratings Round-Up191
Ratings Round-Up191
Ratings Round-Up201
Market Data214
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications253

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Cite this Report

  
MLA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. "Pricey Stocks and Subpar Profits Curb M&A and Age the Cycle (Capital Markets Research)" Jul 28, 2016. Alacra Store. May 04, 2025. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Pricey-Stocks-and-Subpar-Profits-Curb-M-A-and-Age-the-Cycle-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3118>
  
APA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. (2016). Pricey Stocks and Subpar Profits Curb M&A and Age the Cycle (Capital Markets Research) Jul 28, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved May 04, 2025 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Pricey-Stocks-and-Subpar-Profits-Curb-M-A-and-Age-the-Cycle-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3118>
  
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