WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 3, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Overblown Inflation Fear Roils MarketsCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Overblown Inflation Fear Roils Markets. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Q4-2016s issuance of US$ high-yield bonds is expected to advance by 24% from Q4-2015, begin on page 12. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 12Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Upgrade/Downgrade Ratio Is Good.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 16Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 18Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Defaults, Italy, shareholders, DB, Saudi, M&A, subpar, Thailand, BP plc, UK, Allstate, ratings, OPEC, Fed, leverage, Greece, worries, ECB, defaults, EDFs, Swiber, defaults.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 22Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be close to its recent 137 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 531 bp, it may approximate 575 bp by year-end 2016. Defaults US HY default rate: after September 2016s 5.4%,Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts it near 4.2% by the summer of 2017. Issuance For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 8.5% to a record $1.439 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may sink by -4.8% to $337 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Alaistair Chan +61 (2) 9270-8148 Alaistair.Chan@moodys.com Emily Dabbs +61 (2) 9270-8159 Emily.Dabbs@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comCAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH2 NOVEMBER 3, 2016 CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH, INC. / MARKET OUT...
