Medium-Grade Yields at 60-Year Low (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research

Medium-Grade Yields at 60-Year Low (Capital Markets Research)

Medium-Grade Yields at 60-Year Low (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research
Medium-Grade Yields at 60-Year Low (Capital Markets Research)
Published Jul 14, 2016
21 pages — Published Jul 14, 2016
Price US$ 750.00  |  Buy this Report Now

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Abstract:

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKJULY 14, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMedium-Grade Yields at 60-Year LowCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Medium-Grade Yields at 60-Year Low. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 4The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, The latest slide by investment-grade bond yields increases the likelihood of a record-breaking second half for the issuance of investment-grade bonds, begin on page 9. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 9Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh US Rating Changes Hint with Positives.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 13Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 15Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Bondholders, cred risk, sov risk, MIRs, jobs, ratings, Brexit, compensation, Angang, Hungary, foreboding, ECB, FedEx, Portugal, XOM, equities, SOCGEN. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 19Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be close to its recent 145 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 573 bp, it may approximate 640 bp by year-end 2016.Defaults US HY default rate: after May 2016s 5.0%, Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts 6.4% by Q4 2016.Issuance In 2015, US$-denominated investment-grade (IG) bond offerings advanced by 17.5% to $1.326 trillion, while US$-denominated high-yield bond issuance sank by -15.0% to $358 billion. For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 5.7% to a record $1.402 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may sink by -16.7% to $295 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Jack Chambers +61 (2) 9270-8118 Jack.chambers@moodys.com Alaistair Chan +61 (2) 9270-8146 Alaistair.Chan@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics d...

  
Source:
Document ID
PBC_191090
Report Type
Market Outlook
Format:
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Sections

TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
The Week Ahead11
The Long View11
Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh11
US Rating Changes Hint with Positives.11
Market Data11
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications11
Weekly Market Outlook Contributors:11
Credit Markets Review and Outlook22
  VIX Index favors a less than 400 bp spread for high yield21
  Base metals prices are now up from a year earlier21
  Outlook for defaults complements market s positive tone21
  Profitability will help shape the default rate31
The Week Ahead US, Europe, Asia-Pacific45
  THE US41
    Friday, July 1541
  Retail Sales June41
  Consumer Price Index June41
  Industrial Production &Capacity Utilization June41
  Business Inventories May41
  Unsold inventories have yet to swell in a disruptive manner.41
    Monday, July 1841
  NAHB Housing Market Index July41
    Tuesday, July 1941
  Housing Starts &Building Permits June41
    Thursday, July 2141
  Existing Home Sales June41
  Leading Economic Indicators Index June51
  EUROPE51
    Friday, July 1561
  Euro Zone: Consumer Price Index (June; 10:00 a.m. BST)61
  Asia-Pacific61
    Friday, July 1561
  China Foreign Direct Investment June61
  China Fixed Asset Investment June61
  China GDP 2016Q271
  China Industrial Production June71
  China Retail Sales June71
  Indonesia Foreign Trade June71
    Monday, July 1871
  New Zealand Consumer Price Index 2016Q271
  Singapore Foreign Trade June71
    Tuesday, July 1981
    Wednesday, July 2081
    Thursday, July 2181
  Indonesia Monetary Policy July81
    Friday, July 2281
  Taiwan Domestic Trade June81
  Taiwan Industrial Production June81
The Long View94
  Credit spreads91
  Defaults91
  Through the first 28 weeks of 2016, US$-denominated corporate bond issuance showed year-over-year percent changes of a 1.0% rise for investment-grade and a -30.5% plunge for high-yield. US economic outlook101
  The mid-point of the range for fed funds should finish 2016 no greater than 0.875%. In view of the considerable under-utilization of the world s productive resources, low inflation should help to rein in treasury bond yields. As long as labor is gro...101
  EUROPE101
  The euro zone economy will likely slow this and next year due to the U.K. exit from the European Union. Although we still expect the economy to expand, we have cut the growth estimates to 1.3% for this year and to 1.1% for next year, from 1.6% and 1.8...101
  Although the annual euro zone inflation accelerated slightly in June thanks to a softer decline in energy prices, the U.K. exit from the EU will weigh on the economy, which will likely push consumer prices lower. Inflation will remain subdued in comin...101
  With stabilizing financial markets the European Central Bank will likely keep interest rates and monthly asset purchases steady next week. Although the immediate risk of financial market contagion after the U.K. had voted to leave the EU subsided, eco...101
  Moody s Analytics expects U.K. economic growth to moderate to 1.5% this year and to 0.5% next year. Heightened uncertainty after its exit has rattled financial markets, with the pound plunging and equity indexes around the world falling. The U.K. will...101
  The Bank of England surprised markets by keeping its policy rate and asset-purchase program unchanged on Thursday, the first since the U.K. voted to leave the EU. The bank s decision seems justified. Although the pound's depreciation could support the...111
  Asia Pacific112
Ratings Round-Up131
Ratings Round-Up131
Ratings Round-Up141
Market Data154
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications193

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MLA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. "Medium-Grade Yields at 60-Year Low (Capital Markets Research)" Jul 14, 2016. Alacra Store. May 04, 2025. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Medium-Grade-Yields-at-60-Year-Low-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3112>
  
APA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. (2016). Medium-Grade Yields at 60-Year Low (Capital Markets Research) Jul 14, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved May 04, 2025 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Medium-Grade-Yields-at-60-Year-Low-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3112>
  
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