Markets Portend a Lower Default Rate (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research

Markets Portend a Lower Default Rate (Capital Markets Research)

Markets Portend a Lower Default Rate (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research
Markets Portend a Lower Default Rate (Capital Markets Research)
Published Sep 08, 2016
25 pages — Published Sep 08, 2016
Price US$ 750.00  |  Buy this Report Now

About This Report

  
Abstract:

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKSEPTEMBER 8, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMarkets Portend a Lower Default RateCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Markets Portend a Lower Default Rate. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Following a robust August, Septembers corporate bond issuance is likely to be lively, begin on page 13. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 13Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Upswing in the US and Europe.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 17Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 19Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: EDFs, Swiber, defaults, Mexico, stability, retail, Portugal, overvalued, Pakistan, productivity, gold, Venezuela, economy, Italy, pricey, borrowing, Turkey, shareholders. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 23Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be close to its recent 141 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 519 bp, it may approximate 600 bp by year-end 2016. Defaults US HY default rate: after July 2016s 5.5%, Moodys CreditPolicy Group forecasts 6.3% by Q4 2016.Issuance For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 6.1% to a record $1.407 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may sink by -12.7% to $309 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Alaistair Chan +61 (2) 9270-8148 Alaistair.Chan@moodys.com Jack Chambers +61 (2) 9270-8118 Jack.chambers@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHCredit Markets Review and OutlookCredit Markets Review and Outlook By John Lonski, Chief ...

  
Source:
Document ID
PBC_192074
Report Type
Market Outlook
Format:
PDF Adobe Acrobat
Buy Now

Sections

TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
The Week Ahead11
The Long View11
Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh11
Upswing in the US and Europe.11
Market Data11
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications11
Weekly Market Outlook Contributors:11
Credit Markets Review and Outlook23
  Upbeat VIX Index contradicts a skeptical high-yield spread31
  High-yield spread s yearlong trend predicts a lower default rate31
  ISM Indices detect an August slowdown41
The Week Ahead US, Europe, Asia-Pacific58
  THE US51
    Wednesday, September 1451
  Import Price Index August51
    Thursday, September 1551
  Retail Sales August51
  Producer Price Index August51
  Industrial Production &Capacity Utilization August51
  Business Inventories July51
    Friday, September 1661
  Consumer Price Index August61
  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment September Preliminary61
  EUROPE61
    Thursday, September 871
  Euro Zone: Monetary Policy (September; 12:45 p.m. BST)71
    Friday, September 971
  France: industrial Production (July; 8:00 a.m. BST)71
  Spain: Industrial Production (July; 8:05 a.m. BST)71
  Asia-Pacific81
    Friday, September 981
  Philippines Industrial Production July81
  South Korea Monetary Policy September81
  Australia Housing Finance July81
  China Consumer Price Index August81
  China Producer Price Index August81
  Malaysia Industrial Production July91
  Japan Industry Activity Indexes July91
  China Monetary Aggregates August91
  India Foreign Trade August91
    Monday, September 1291
  China Monetary Aggregates August91
  India Foreign Trade August91
  Japan Machinery Orders July101
  India Consumer Price Index August101
  India Industrial Production July101
    Tuesday, September 13101
  South Korea Employment August101
  China Fixed Asset Investment August101
  China Industrial Production August101
  China Retail Sales August101
    Wednesday, September 14111
  India Wholesale Price Index August111
    Thursday, September 15111
  China Foreign Direct Investment August111
  New Zealand GDP 2016Q2111
  Australia Employment Situation August111
  Indonesia Foreign Trade August111
    Friday, September 16121
  Singapore Foreign Trade August121
  Thailand Monetary Policy September121
The Long View134
  Credit spreads131
  Defaults131
  Through the first 36 weeks of 2016, US$-denominated corporate bond issuance showed year-over-year percent changes of a 4.7% rise for investment-grade and a -18.9% plunge for high-yield. US economic outlook141
  EUROPE141
  Eurozone141
  U.K.151
    Asia Pacific152
Ratings Round-Up171
Ratings Round-Up171
Ratings Round-Up181
Market Data194
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications233

Table Of Contents

Moody's Capital Markets Research—Moody's Analytics offers research, unique tools and best practices for measuring and managing risk through expertise and experience in credit analysis, economic research and financial risk management.

About the Author


Cite this Report

  
MLA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. "Markets Portend a Lower Default Rate (Capital Markets Research)" Sep 08, 2016. Alacra Store. May 04, 2025. <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Markets-Portend-a-Lower-Default-Rate-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3140>
  
APA:
Moody's Capital Markets Research. (2016). Markets Portend a Lower Default Rate (Capital Markets Research) Sep 08, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved May 04, 2025 from <http://www.alacrastore.com/storecontent/Moody-s-Capital-Markets-Research/Markets-Portend-a-Lower-Default-Rate-Capital-Markets-Research-2141-3140>
  
US$ 750.00
$  £  
Have a Question?

Any questions about the report you're considering? Our Customer Service Team can help! Or visit our FAQs.

More Research

Search all our Credit Research from one place.