CORPORATESISSUER COMMENT 30 NOVEMBER 2015NOBLE GROUP, LTD. (NOBLE)Moodys Senior Unsecured Rating Baa3Moodys Outlook RURBond-Implied Rating Caa3CDS-Implied Rating Caa2EDF-Implied Rating Caa2As of 11/24/2015ANALYST CONTACTSAllerton G. Smith 212-553-4058 Sr Dir-Sr Research Analyst allerton.smith@moodys.comABOUT CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHAnalyses from Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. (CMR) focus on explaining signals from the credit and equity markets. The publications address whether market signals, in the opinion of the groups analysts, accurately reflect the risks and investment opportunities associated with issuers and sectors. CMR research thus complements the fundamentally-oriented research offered by Moodys Investors Service (MIS), the rating agency.CMR is part of Moodys Analytics, which is one of the two operating businesses of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics (including CMR) is legally and organizationally separated from Moodys Investors Service and operates on an arms length basis from the ratings business. CMR does not provide investment advisory services or products.View the CMR FAQ Contact the CMR team Follow us on TwitterMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Market Signals ReviewNoble Group, Ltd.: Two Market-Implied Ratings Decline The bond- and CDS-implied ratings for Noble are both currently much lower than their best levels over the last year (Figure 1).The bond-implied rating varied between Ba1 and Ca over the last 365 days. It presently has settled near the lower end of its recent range at Caa3. The Ca observation in October 2015 was the lowest bond-implied rating seen for Noble over the last five years.FIGURE 1. NOBLE: MOODYS AND MARKET-IMPLIED RATINGS, 365 DAYS (WEEKLY DATA)The companys CDS-implied rating was Baa3 one year ago. It dropped to Ca in October its weakest level over the last 60 months. It now stands at Caa2.MOODY'S ANALYTICS CORPORATES2 30 NOVEMBER 2015 MARKET SIGNALS REVIEW: NOBLE GROUP, LTD.: TWO MARKET-IMPLIED RATINGS DECLINENobles EDF'-implied rating was Caa2 one year ago. Since then it has often varied between Caa1 and Caa2, where it is at present.Nobles bond-, CDS-, and EDF-implied ratings gaps are among the worst in our market-implied ratings universe. The bond-implied ratings gap is -9 notches, down precipitously from its highest level of -1 notch over the past 12 months (Figure 2). The CDS-implied ratings gap is -8 notches versus its recent peak of -2 notches in December 2014. The EDF-implied ratings gap is -8 notches, matching its level of one year ago.According to our ratings gap-conditioned transition matrices, companies rated Baa3 with a bond-implied rating of Caa3 (i.e., a market-implied ...
