FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSISSUER COMMENT 9 June 2016RATINGSCREDIT AGRICOLE SA (ACA) Moodys SR Unsecured Rating A2Moodys Outlook POSBond-Implied Rating Aa2CDS-Implied Rating Baa1EDF-Implied Rating Ba1As of June 7, 2016ContactsAllerton G. Smith 212-553-4058 Sr Dir-Sr Research Analyst allerton.smith@moodys.comABOUT CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHAnalyses from Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. (CMR) focus on explaining signals from the credit and equity markets. The publications address whether market signals, in the opinion of the groups analysts, accurately reflect the risks and investment opportunities associated with issuers and sectors. CMR research thus complements the fundamentally-oriented research offered by Moodys Investors Service (MIS), the rating agency.CMR is part of Moodys Analytics, which is one of the two operating businesses of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics (including CMR) is legally and organizationally separated from Moodys Investors Service and operates on an arms length basis from the ratings business. CMR does not provide investment advisory services or products.View the CMR FAQ Contact the CMR team Follow us on TwitterMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research,Inc. is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products.For further detail, please see the last page.Market Signals ReviewCr?dit Agricole SA: Market-Implied Ratings Rise Over Year The three market-implied ratings of Credit Agricole all advanced from their lowest points over the last 12 months.The banks bond-implied rating was at its nadir of A2 on multiple dates in August to November 2015 (Figure 1). It rose to a peak of Aa1 on November 23 and presently stands at Aa2.The CDS-implied rating was Baa2 a year ago. Since then it varied between that level and A3. It is currently Baa1.The EDF'-implied rating was Ba2 in early June 2015. It sank to a bottom of B1 on several dates between early February and June 3, 2016 and recently rallied by three notches to Ba1.FIGURE 1. CREDIT AGRICOLE: MOODYS AND MARKET-IMPLIED RATINGS, LAST 365 DAYS (DAILY DATA)According to our ratings gap-conditioned transition matrices, companies rated A2 with a bond-implied rating of Aa2 outperformed the broad market 16% of the time overMOODY'S ANALYTICS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS2 9 June 2016 Market Signals Review: Cr?dit Agricole SA: Market-Implied Ratings Rise Over Yearthe following 12 months, matched the markets performance 25% of the time, and underperformed the broad market 59% of the time.Over the past twelve months Credit Agricoles bond-implied ratings gap improved to +3 notches from a low of zero notches (Figure 2). Its CDS-implied ratings gap of -2 notches is one notch better than its bottom over the period. The EDF-implied ratings gap is presently -5 notches versus its worst level over the last year...
