FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSISSUER COMMENT 11 AUGUST 2015COMERICA, INC. (CMA)Moodys Senior Unsecured Rating A3Moodys Outlook STABond-Implied Rating A3CDS-Implied Rating NAEDF-Implied Rating Baa2As of 8/11/2015ANALYST CONTACTSAllerton G. Smith 212-553-4058 Sr Dir-Sr Research Analyst allerton.smith@moodys.comABOUT CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHAnalyses from Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. (CMR) focus on explaining signals from the credit and equity markets. The publications address whether market signals, in the opinion of the groups analysts, accurately reflect the risks and investment opportunities associated with issuers and sectors. CMR research thus complements the fundamentally-oriented research offered by Moodys Investors Service (MIS), the rating agency.CMR is part of Moodys Analytics, which is one of the two operating businesses of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics (including CMR) is legally and organizationally separated from Moodys Investors Service and operates on an arms length basis from the ratings business. CMR does not provide investment advisory services or products.View the CMR FAQ Contact the CMR team Follow us on TwitterMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.This report has been republished on 1 July 2015 with the correction to Outlook in the ratings box from POS to STA.Market Signals ReviewComerica, Inc.: Bond-Implied Rating Declines Comerica's bond-implied rating slipped two notches lower to A3 over the last 12 months and now matches the companys senior debt rating (Figure 1). The implied rating dipped as low as Baa2, and moved as high as Aa2 over the last 12 months.The bond-implied ratings gap has varied between +4 notches and -2 notches since August 10, 2014. The current gap is zero notches (Figure 2).The EDF'-implied rating for CMA is -2 notches, identical to the level 12 months ago. Over the last year it has been as strong as -1 notch and as weak as -3 notches.FIGURE 1. COMERICA, INC. MOODYS AND MARKET-IMPLIED RATINGS, LAST 12 MONTHS DAILY OBSERVATIONSMOODY'S ANALYTICS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS2 11 AUGUST 2015 MARKET SIGNALS REVIEW : COMERICA, INC.: BOND-IMPLIED RATING DECLINESCMA does not have liquid CDS, so we do not report a CDS-implied rating for the company.Our ratings gap-conditioned transition matrices (available on Moodys CreditView) show that historically a company rated A3 with a bond-implied rating of A3 outperformed the broad market 29% of the time over the next 12 months, matched the market 13% of the time, and underperformed the market 59% of the time.FIGURE 2. COMERICA, INC. MOODYS AND MARKET-IMPLIED RATINGS GAPS, LAST 12 MONTHS DAILY OBSERVATIONSMOODY'S ANALYTICS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS3 ...
