WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKOCTOBER 22, 2015CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.High Yield Spread Disputes VIX Indexs Complacency Credit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski High Yield Spread Disputes VIX Indexs Complacency.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2Topic of the Week by Ben Garber Another Debt Ceiling Showdown.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 6The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 9 The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Dollar value of worldwide issuance diminished by currencies that have sunk against the dollar, begin on page 20.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 20Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh Oil Prices Depress Credit Quality.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 23Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 25Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: McK, Joy, GS, Dell, BAC, Brazil, Oracle, JPM, sales, HSY, VOD, AA, household debt, HAL, credit quality, Pepsi, Valeant. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 29Credit Spreads Investment Grade: Year-end 2015 spread to be under its recent 163 bp.High Yield: Recent spread of 617 bp should approximate 615 bp by year-end 2015.Defaults US HY default rate: September 2015, 2.5%; Moodys Credit Policy Group forecasts 3.8% by September 2016Issuance For 2015, US$ IG bond offerings may grow by 19% to $1.339 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance sinks by -16% to $352 billion. In 2014, US$ IG bond issuance rose by 0.9% to $1.129 trillion, while US$ HY bond issuance dropped by -2.3% to $421 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Katrina Ell +61 (2) 9270-8144 Katrina.ell @moodys.com Faraz Syed +61 (2) 9270-8146 Faraz.syed @moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398...
